zeroclick. / futures
Deterministic counterfactual · shareable query

Move the levers. See what survives.

This lab runs the same quarterly engine as the published scenarios. It starts from the coordinated-open ledger, changes only the five controls below, and recomputes the market on the server—no LLM and no interpolated chart.

Your assumptions
20% → 40%
off → on
0% → 60%
1% → 20%
1.0× → 3.0×
2029Q2 result
21.5%agent share of online GMV
24.0%attempts that settle
21.1%online GMV retained by merchants
Your counterfactual against the three published scenarios
0%6%13%19%25%forkYour run 22%Coordinated open 22%Fragmented open 19%Walled gardens 15%2026Q32027Q12027Q32028Q12028Q32029Q12029Q2
Your runCoordinated openFragmented openWalled gardens
Why attempts end this way in 2029Q2
settled24%
no instrument24%
no rail27%
runtime blocked1%
seller capability gap18%
abandoned6%

The lab intentionally exposes only five legible levers. Seller-capability diffusion, buyer-instrument migration, settlement reliability and every other value remain at the published coordinated-open defaults. This is a model stress test, not a personalized prediction. Full ledger and ranges: footnotes.