2040 structural model

One need · one readable arc

Buying stops being one kind of event.

The shift is not an agent clicking today’s checkout faster. Intent becomes portable authority, businesses become callable, specialized agents coordinate the market and purchases become policies that can reach the physical world.

The human does not disappear. Attention moves from assembling transactions to setting boundaries, reviewing exceptions and revoking authority. Read the purchasing story first; expand the economic, protocol and ecology layers afterward.

Build the path

Choose what becomes true—then live through the result.

Authority, market formation, assurance and execution are independent forks. The selected household replenishment need stays constant so the changing purchasing experience remains visible.

Compare three institutional benchmarks—not the full possibility space

Coordinated openportable authority + compatible rails Fragmented openadapters + partial portability Walled gardensintegrated platforms + captive trust

Published path · structural model

Coordinated open rails

Rails can bridge buyer instruments. A wallet or card token can resolve the same 402 through an interoperable router; chat runtimes rarely block a third-party rail and platform take stays near card interchange. By 2029Q2 24% of agent attempts succeed, agents carry 22% of online GMV — inside Bain's 2030 band a year early — and a third of buyers hold a wallet. The binding constraint flips from the buyer's instrument to seller reach.

2040 machine counterparties56%

continuous commerce25%

published 2040 p10–p9018%–50%512 structural draws

The whole path in four changes

One need moves from request to operating policy.

story first · model layers after

2029 · assisted commerceIntent becomes a mandate

The person gives software a bounded right to act.

purchase: approval bundle
agent-executed: $121B–$188B
machine cast: 3 role classes
human: operator

2032 · delegated commerceBusinesses become callable

Catalog, checkout, fulfillment and support become machine-addressable capabilities.

purchase: policy console
agent-executed: $229B–$452B
machine cast: 7 role classes
human: approver and recourse owner

2036 · agent marketsThe market gains counterparties

Specialized buyer, seller, trust and operating agents coordinate the purchase.

purchase: ambient market
agent-executed: $400B–$956B
machine cast: 10 role classes
human: policy setter and exception handler

2040 · agent marketsThe purchase becomes a policy

Standing intent allocates money and physical capacity until a boundary is crossed.

purchase: ambient market
agent-executed: $613B–$1.6T
machine cast: 11 role classes
human: policy setter and exception handler

Conditional annual ranges overlap and are not valuations. Role classes are functional activations above the disclosed threshold—not agent population or forecast headcount.

2029

assisted commerce · model-triggered authored event

Checkout compatibility exposes the seller gap.

Compatible rails let more buyer agents reach sellers, but seller-side delegation remains a narrow foothold.

2029

Interface evolution · adaptive agent store · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Coordinated open rails

One intent, one approval

State the goal, inspect the evidence and approve this purchase.

adaptive agent store · approval bundle · engine selected

Agent influenced$333B–$381B

Agent executed$121B–$188B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$107B–$168B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Coordinated open rails · 2029

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Restock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

I’ll act inside your single-use mandate, preserve The person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRAgent-assembled storeHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfaceready for approvalCoordinated open rails2029

IntentRestock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

Authenticated seller capsule · recommendedTwo-week essentials · allergy-safe · refillableStaples, seller provenance, delivery slot and substitution rules travel together · portable mandate · independent assurance

within mandate

FallbackLocal reserve · fewer refill optionsHeld if the primary supplier cannot prove stock or delivery · present a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute

+$12

One signed commitment · one-shot settlementEnter seller presence

terms verifiedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2029-04proof attached

Seller authoredoffer, imagery and fulfillment promiseYour agent shapedranking, comparison and mandate fitAssurance checkedindependent assurance

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2029

The person approves one bounded commitment and receives a receipt plus execution watch.

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

Your agent handledThe buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritysingle-use mandate

Market topologyfederated market

Identityportable mandate

Price formationposted bundle

Settlementone-shot settlement

Human attentionapprove this purchase

Trust surfaceportable mandate, independent assurance, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsAssembles a ranked offer, counterparty, settlement and assurance bundle, then waits for one explicit authorization. Sourcing uses ranked shortlist from a federated market; posted bundles set the price before one-shot settlement executes the commitment.

When it breakspresent a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute; the person’s attention mode is “approve this purchase.”

autonomy9%

delegation fit66%

market reach72%

exception risk16%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 100%negotiate 0%policy 0%ambient 0%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 100% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

2029 · Coordinated open rails
federated market
Site referral 77%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

A delivery operator receives the signed fulfillment terms only after approval; the receipt follows every item and substitution into the home.

Control returns hereThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The visible change is compression: product search, seller choice, service, payment and delivery arrive as one proposal. Human attention concentrates at the moment of authorization. At the 2029 handoff, 22% of demand is delegated while only 2% has a machine on both sides. The experience therefore begins as an approval bundle.

What remains contested: A federated market expands choice, but portable mandate and independent assurance must scale without hardening into a new control point.

Active machine cast · model-derivedBuyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent

Coordination burden2%range 2%–3%

Human roleoperatorowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The structural handoff begins as an approval bundle.

2029Q2 → 2029

Interfaceapproval bundlestructural starting state

Human attentionapprove this purchasestructural starting state

Agent mandatesingle-use mandateautonomy starts at 9%

Market boundary72% reachablereach starts at 72% · exception risk starts at 16%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · branch-specific event at the near-term handoff22.0% of demand is delegated, while seller-agent adoption begins at 7.8% after the 2029Q2 handoff.Authored consequence: Merchant representation—not buyer intent—becomes the binding work for the open ecosystem.

Event sensitivity · branch-fixed handoff event

Checkout compatibility exposes the seller gap.100%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Checkout compatibility exposes the seller gap. 100%

Model competence23%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability25%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity14%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand22%

machine on both sides2%

continuous commerce2%

physical execution0%

pooled demand0%

adaptive supply0%

governance capacity76%

adversarial loss8%

2029Q2 → structural 2029model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandThe structural layer carries the branch’s final agent-GMV share into its starting delegated-demand state.22%near-term agent GMV 22% → 22%

seller-agent footholdA disclosed 12% handoff factor converts rail-capable sellers into the initial seller-agent foothold.8%sellers answering a rail 65% → 8%

governance capacityPortable authority, liability clarity and branch coordination are averaged into the initial governance capacity.76%structural priors

physical execution footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds the small share of agent demand that can already cause and verify physical execution.0%near-term agent GMV + structural prior 22% → 0%

pooled demand footholdDelegated demand and the pooled-mandate prior seed the initial ability to bargain across more than one buyer.0%agent GMV + pooled-mandate prior 22% → 0%

adaptive supply footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds supply that can be configured from machine-readable demand rather than selected from a fixed catalog.0%seller-agent foothold

adversarial lossThe failed-attempt share and adversarial-pressure prior seed loss pressure; this is a structural mapping, not observed loss.8%failed attempts + pressure prior 75% → 8%

Arena lens: For household replenishment, repeatability 95%, reversibility 85%, consequence 20% and preference-articulation load 20% produce 66% modeled delegation fit. These are unanchored scenario priors, not measurements.

share of demand delegated starts at 22.0%; seller-agent adoption starts at 7.8%; share with machine counterparties starts at 1.7%; share negotiated starts at 1.8%; share run continuously starts at 2.2%.

No new actor class enters yet; adoption and institutional state drive this transition.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2032

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Mandates become portable credentials.

Authority, receipts and reputation begin crossing runtimes without forcing the buyer to create a new platform account.

2032

Interface evolution · live seller-presence market · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Coordinated open rails

The purchase becomes a policy

Define the policy, review exceptions and a periodic digest, and adjust constraints.

live seller-presence market · policy console · engine selected

Agent influenced$553B–$862B

Agent executed$229B–$452B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$207B–$415B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Coordinated open rails · 2032

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Replace the weekly essentials order before Friday. Negotiate substitutions, delivery and the $190 ceiling.

I’ll act inside your rolling category policy, preserve The person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRHousehold essentials policyHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacemonitoringCoordinated open rails2032

Outcomethree-week reserve

Ceiling$480 / month

Attention1 exception

Maintain staple reserve above 14 dayson track

Prefer refill before replacementmonitoring

Substitution would cross allergy boundaryreview

Decision requested · independent assuranceApprove an allergy-safe local substitute while the supply agent reroutes the remaining basket?standing search across a federated market · present a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute

policy active · exception isolatedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2032-04proof attached

Seller authoredservice capability when an exception changes providersYour agent shapedcontinuous policy, memory and exception routingAssurance checkedindependent assurance

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2032

A sequence of reversible commitments replaces isolated search, cart and checkout sessions.

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

Your agent handledBuyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authorityrolling category policy

Market topologyfederated market

Identityportable mandate

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Human attentionreview exceptions and digest

Trust surfaceportable mandate, independent assurance, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsMonitors the selected outcome, opens and closes commitments, and routes genuine exceptions to the person. Sourcing uses standing search across a federated market; buyer and seller agents negotiate the bundle before conditional atomic settlement executes the commitment.

When it breakspresent a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute; the person’s attention mode is “review exceptions and digest.”

autonomy20%

delegation fit66%

market reach72%

exception risk14%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 35%policy 64%ambient 1%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 64% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

2032 · Coordinated open rails
federated market
Site referral 51%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

Buyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Inventory is reserved, the delivery route is recomputed and the rejected substitute never enters the fulfillment queue.

Control returns hereThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The unit of commerce changes from an item to an outcome. Purchases become reversible commitments managed against a standing policy, with the person returning for exceptions and review. Since 2029, machine-counterparty share rises by 10.6 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 1.3 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from approval bundle to policy console.

What remains contested: A federated market expands choice, but portable mandate and independent assurance must scale without hardening into a new control point.

Active machine cast · model-derivedBuyer agent · Seller agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Routing agent · Procurement agent · Market operator

Coordination burden3%range 2%–5%

Human roleapprover and recourse ownerowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from approval bundle to policy console.

2029 → 2032

Interfacepolicy consolefrom approval bundle

Human attentionreview exceptions and digestfrom approve this purchase

Agent mandaterolling category policyautonomy +11.0 pp to 20%

Market boundary72% reachablereach +0.1 pp to 72% · exception risk -2.3 pp to 14%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · identity portability ≥ 65.0%Identity portability is 78.0% and machine counterparties reach 12.4%.Authored consequence: Assurance networks now decide which permissions and histories can safely travel with an agent.

Event sensitivity · selected 31% · leading alternate 38%

Open rails outrun portable authority.31%

Assurance bridges begin translating authority.38%

Mandates become portable credentials.31%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Open rails outrun portable authority. 31% · Assurance bridges begin translating authority. 38% · Mandates become portable credentials. 31%

Model competence52%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability40%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity33%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand42%

machine on both sides12%

continuous commerce3%

physical execution7%

pooled demand14%

adaptive supply3%

governance capacity76%

adversarial loss5%

2029 → 2032model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+20.1 pp2029 22% → now 42%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+32.6 pp2029 8% → now 40%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+10.6 pp2029 2% → now 12%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+1.3 pp2029 2% → now 3%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+6.5 pp2029 0% → now 7%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+13.8 pp2029 0% → now 14%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+2.8 pp2029 0% → now 3%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.−2.3 pp2029 8% → now 5%

share of demand delegated rises to 42.1% (+20.1%); seller-agent adoption rises to 40.4% (+32.6%); share with machine counterparties rises to 12.4% (+10.6%); share negotiated rises to 6.8% (+5.0%); share run continuously rises to 3.5% (+1.3%).

New modeled actors: Merchant capability — exposes discovery, checkout, fulfillment and support as callable operations without needing a human-facing storefront; Seller agent — sets price, inventory exposure, service terms and which buyers to trust; Authority network — proves what an agent may spend, disclose, sign and delegate onward; Open commerce router — routes portable intent across catalogs, logistics and payment providers without owning the buyer relationship.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2036

agent markets · model-triggered authored event

Agent auctions begin clearing commercial terms.

Buyer and seller agents can form price, service and assurance terms in a federated market instead of accepting one posted bundle.

2036

Interface evolution · policy + exception surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Coordinated open rails

Commerce becomes continuous

Choose values and limits, audit drift and retain the right to pause or revoke.

policy + exception surface · ambient market · engine selected

Agent influenced$859B–$1.6T

Agent executed$400B–$956B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$359B–$880B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Coordinated open rails · 2036

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Keep household essentials in stock below $480 a month; substitute only inside the allergy and waste policy.

I’ll act inside your continuous reserve policy, preserve The person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold reserveHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacecontinuousCoordinated open rails2036

Protected reserve21.4 days

Policy drift0.8%

continuous

Staples42%

Cleaning28%

Personal care20%

Uncommitted reserve10%

Agent event · programmable escrowAllocation shifted after a supplier recall; verified local stock replaced the affected items.portable mandate · independent assurance · no policy boundary crossed

Last human review: 12 days ago · audit drift or revokePause or revoke

reserve reconciled · 14:32 UTCmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2036-04proof attached

Seller authoredcapability and fulfillment state on demandYour agent shapedquiet orchestration; seller presence appears only for novelty or riskAssurance checkedindependent assurance

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2036

The commercial interface becomes a live policy with reserves, receipts, drift alerts and revocation—not a store or cart.

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

Your agent handledThe agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritycontinuous reserve policy

Market topologyfederated market

Identityportable mandate

Price formationagent auction

Settlementprogrammable escrow

Human attentionaudit drift or revoke

Trust surfaceportable mandate, independent assurance, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsForecasts demand, negotiates capacity and continuously reallocates a protected reserve across competing resources. Sourcing uses continuous allocation across a federated market; an agent auction clears the price before programmable escrow executes the commitment.

When it breakspresent a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute; the person’s attention mode is “audit drift or revoke.”

autonomy37%

delegation fit66%

market reach72%

exception risk14%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 0%policy 42%ambient 58%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 58% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

2036 · Coordinated open rails
federated market
Delegated checkout 36%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Local refill, delivery and pickup operators receive just-in-time commitments; packaging and unused inventory are collected on the return leg.

Control returns hereThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The transaction recedes from view. Capacity, money and service are continuously reallocated behind a protected reserve, so the human interface becomes drift, evidence and revocation. Since 2032, machine-counterparty share rises by 23.4 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 8.5 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from policy console to ambient market.

What remains contested: A federated market expands choice, but portable mandate and independent assurance must scale without hardening into a new control point.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Routing agent · Market operator · Procurement agent · Physical operator · Assurance agent · Supply agent

Coordination burden6%range 4%–9%

Human rolepolicy setter and exception handlerowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from policy console to ambient market.

2032 → 2036

Interfaceambient marketfrom policy console

Human attentionaudit drift or revokefrom review exceptions and digest

Agent mandatecontinuous reserve policyautonomy +17.1 pp to 37%

Market boundary72% reachablereach +0.2 pp to 72% · exception risk +0.5 pp to 14%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · negotiated transactions ≥ 18.0%21.0% of transactions are negotiated and seller-agent adoption reaches 72.1%.Authored consequence: Auction access and portable reputation become public-governance questions, not merely checkout features.

Event sensitivity · selected 18% · leading alternate 76%

Human approval remains the final clearing layer.5%

Negotiation protocols become shared market infrastructure.76%

Agent auctions begin clearing commercial terms.18%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Human approval remains the final clearing layer. 5% · Negotiation protocols become shared market infrastructure. 76% · Agent auctions begin clearing commercial terms. 18%

Model competence75%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability55%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity49%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand60%

machine on both sides36%

continuous commerce12%

physical execution23%

pooled demand26%

adaptive supply12%

governance capacity76%

adversarial loss6%

2032 → 2036model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+17.9 pp2032 42% → now 60%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+31.7 pp2032 40% → now 72%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+23.4 pp2032 12% → now 36%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+8.5 pp2032 3% → now 12%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+16.1 pp2032 7% → now 23%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+11.9 pp2032 14% → now 26%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+8.6 pp2032 3% → now 12%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+0.5 pp2032 5% → now 6%

share of demand delegated rises to 60.0% (+17.9%); seller-agent adoption rises to 72.1% (+31.7%); share with machine counterparties rises to 35.7% (+23.4%); share negotiated rises to 21.0% (+14.3%); share run continuously rises to 12.0% (+8.5%).

New modeled actors: Agent market operator — matches machine demand and supply while setting access and ranking rules; Assurance network — underwrites disputes, provenance, delivery and adversarial behavior; Physical operator agent — commits robots, vehicles, workers and facilities to machine-negotiated physical outcomes; Metered capability — quotes and settles small units of digital or physical work as they are consumed; Trust and escrow registry — makes identity, reputation, job state and conditional release portable between unfamiliar counterparties; Demand coalition — pools bounded mandates so households or organizations bargain without surrendering individual constraints.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2040

agent markets · model-triggered authored event

Standing policies replace more checkout sessions.

Standing policies allocate recurring demand across providers while portable reserves and receipts preserve the person’s ability to exit.

2040

Interface evolution · ambient agent surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Coordinated open rails

Commerce becomes continuous

Choose values and limits, audit drift and retain the right to pause or revoke.

ambient agent surface · ambient market · engine selected

Agent influenced$1.2T–$2.5T

Agent executed$613B–$1.6T

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$525B–$1.4T

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Coordinated open rails · 2040

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.

I’ll act inside your continuous reserve policy, preserve No approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold reserveHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacecontinuousCoordinated open rails2040

Protected reserve21.4 days

Policy drift0.8%

continuous

Staples42%

Cleaning28%

Personal care20%

Uncommitted reserve10%

Agent event · rolling net settlementAllocation shifted after a supplier recall; verified local stock replaced the affected items.portable mandate · independent assurance · no policy boundary crossed

Last human review: 12 days ago · audit drift or revokePause or revoke

reserve reconciled · 14:32 UTCmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2040-04proof attached

Seller authoredcapability and fulfillment state on demandYour agent shapedquiet orchestration; seller presence appears only for novelty or riskAssurance checkedindependent assurance

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2040

The commercial interface becomes a live policy with reserves, receipts, drift alerts and revocation—not a store or cart.

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

Your agent handledThe agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritycontinuous reserve policy

Market topologyfederated market

Identityportable mandate

Price formationcontinuous clearing

Settlementrolling net settlement

Human attentionaudit drift or revoke

Trust surfaceportable mandate, independent assurance, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsForecasts demand, negotiates capacity and continuously reallocates a protected reserve across competing resources. Sourcing uses continuous allocation across a federated market; continuous clearing reprices capacity before rolling net settlement executes the commitment.

When it breakspresent a portable receipt to an independent assurer, unwind the commitment and reroute; the person’s attention mode is “audit drift or revoke.”

autonomy52%

delegation fit66%

market reach72%

exception risk16%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 0%policy 9%ambient 91%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 91% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

2040 · Coordinated open rails
federated market
Embodied orchestration 39%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

The recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

Control returns hereNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The transaction recedes from view. Capacity, money and service are continuously reallocated behind a protected reserve, so the human interface becomes drift, evidence and revocation. Since 2036, machine-counterparty share rises by 20.7 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 12.8 percentage points. The experience remains an ambient market, but its mandate and market scope deepen.

What remains contested: A federated market expands choice, but portable mandate and independent assurance must scale without hardening into a new control point.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Market operator · Routing agent · Physical operator · Assurance agent · Procurement agent · Supply agent · Object agent

Coordination burden10%range 6%–13%

Human rolepolicy setter and exception handlerowns physical recourse gap

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

ambient market remains visible while its mandate deepens.

2036 → 2040

Interfaceambient marketunchanged from ambient market

Human attentionaudit drift or revokeunchanged from audit drift or revoke

Agent mandatecontinuous reserve policyautonomy +15.0 pp to 52%

Market boundary72% reachablereach +0.2 pp to 72% · exception risk +2.0 pp to 16%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · 12.0% ≤ continuous commerce < 35.0%24.8% of commerce runs continuously while market concentration is 32.5%.Authored consequence: The coordination layer must prevent assurance and routing from hardening into a new private control point.

Event sensitivity · selected 42% · leading alternate 57%

Persistent agents stay inside portable budgets.57%

Standing policies replace more checkout sessions.42%

Outcome markets begin clearing continuously.1%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Persistent agents stay inside portable budgets. 57% · Standing policies replace more checkout sessions. 42% · Outcome markets begin clearing continuously. 1%

Model competence87%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability66%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity59%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand70%

machine on both sides56%

continuous commerce25%

physical execution39%

pooled demand34%

adaptive supply23%

governance capacity76%

adversarial loss8%

2036 → 2040model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+10.1 pp2036 60% → now 70%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+14.4 pp2036 72% → now 87%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+20.7 pp2036 36% → now 56%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+12.8 pp2036 12% → now 25%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+16.2 pp2036 23% → now 39%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+7.8 pp2036 26% → now 34%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+11.0 pp2036 12% → now 23%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+2.0 pp2036 6% → now 8%

share of demand delegated rises to 70.2% (+10.1%); seller-agent adoption rises to 86.5% (+14.4%); share with machine counterparties rises to 56.5% (+20.7%); share negotiated rises to 37.9% (+16.9%); share run continuously rises to 24.8% (+12.8%).

New modeled actors: Resource agent — continuously allocates money, energy, compute, inventory or capacity against a policy; Asset twin — turns a machine, package, building or product lifecycle into an authenticated source of commercial intent; Production agent — configures or commissions supply after machine demand forms, before a finished product necessarily exists.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

Expand the forces behind this futureeconomic envelope · six protocol paths · full agent ecology

Economic envelope · annual U.S. retail e-commerce flows

A dollar can be influenced, executed, retained—or captured as infrastructure.

The engine separates commerce touched by an agent from transactions actually committed by one, then estimates where value can be retained, tolled, lost or created as machine-payable work. Every range moves with this branch’s structural draws plus five disclosed economic priors.

512 paired range-covering draws
one observed 2026 anchor
not a valuation or probability

agent influencedagent executedmerchant-routed after channel value + loss

2029$1.6T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $333B–$381Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $121B–$188Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $107B–$168Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $1.7B–$4.2Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $7.0B–$19.4Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $225M–$803Mnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2032$1.9T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $553B–$862Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $229B–$452Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $207B–$415Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $3.4B–$9.7Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $11.1B–$43.9Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $512M–$2.2Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2036$2.4T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $859B–$1.6Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $400B–$956Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $359B–$880Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $6.3B–$19.8Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $15.9B–$116Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $1.2B–$6.8Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2040$3.1T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $1.2T–$2.5Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $613B–$1.6Tauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $525B–$1.4Tafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $9.4B–$32.9Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $29.7B–$243Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $2.4B–$15.2Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

Observed anchor. $1.4T annualized from Census Q2 2026 seasonally adjusted U.S. retail e-commerce sales; future growth is not observed.26External comparison, not calibration. McKinsey estimated $900B–$1T of U.S. B2C retail revenue could be orchestrated by agentic commerce in 2030. Its definition and horizon differ from these engine flows.27 Overlapping values above must not be added.

Agentic commerce paths · 2029 → 2040

Six futures can grow from the same need.

These are paths, not end-state options. Choose a mechanism, then move through the years to see what must become true and how purchasing changes before the 2040 destination. Seller-to-seller negotiation is only one possible mechanism. Replay this household replenishment need through embedded merchant capabilities, portable mandates, open commerce networks, metered services, trust markets or object-initiated coordination.

four stages per path
activation signals can coexist
experiences = illustrative

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Stores ship their first bounded agents

A merchant-native shopper agent joins search, product reasoning, cart and care in one context while typed tools keep price, availability and policy grounded in store systems.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person asks the store for an outcome, sees a progressively rendered comparison and cart, then applies the prepared checkout from inside the conversation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$4.3B$1.2B–$9.4B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 2.5% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextThe harness grounds every claim, renders only server-issued records and keeps payment behind a real approval surface.

How this path can stallThe agent becomes a polished chat layer over missing inventory, weak policy data or manipulative ranking.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmerchant-owned agent harness

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Every store becomes an agent

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
A merchant-native shopper agent opens a live household replenishment workspace, remembers the relationship and renders product, comparison, delivery and approval surfaces from authoritative store systems.

YouReturn to the relationshipDescribe the household replenishment result; inspect which preferences the store remembered and correct any stale ones.

AIPlan with one contextUse search, research, planning, cart and care skills without handing the conversation across lossy domain agents.

BizRender authoritative UITyped tools return server-validated product, comparison, cart, order and policy components.

YouApply the staged purchaseThe agent may propose and prepare; a person or explicit policy applies the consequential commitment.

BizOperate and careThe merchant agent watches inventory and service, stages operational changes and keeps the seller accountable.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The shopper agent completes a merchant-owned order and stays for service, while the merchant agent watches inventory, pricing and operations behind a separate approval boundary.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Businesses run persistent shopper and merchant agents over typed commerce tools, so the store can research, render, transact and care for the relationship without collapsing into a generic assistant.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

Commerce-agent harnessUCPMCP / backend tools

Activation signal62%

2040 direct value pool$40.7B

Dominant in range draws11%

Human surfacea persistent seller conversation with typed product, cart, order and approval surfaces

Control remains hereApprove the order, inspect or delete remembered preferences and require a person or standing policy before the merchant agent can apply consequential store changes.

What could break it: The seller can turn memory and conversational UI into a captive persuasion surface, while unsafe tool results or weak approval gates can move money or change the business.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws11% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

One-use authority becomes legible

Agent payments, identity assertions and receipts begin recording why a purchase was allowed, not only that a payment succeeded.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a tightly scoped purchase token and receives a receipt that links intent, seller, amount and result.

Conditional direct annual value pool$1.2B$242M–$3.4B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 0.7% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextWallets and merchants can represent purpose, scope, expiry and revocation consistently.

How this path can stallMandates remain unreadable legal objects or are reduced to reusable payment credentials.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity58% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentcredentialed agent-to-merchant request

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Permission replaces checkout

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
The household replenishment policy already contains the allowed spend, data disclosures and exception boundaries. The person sees the mandate being used—not another checkout.

YouGrant a scoped mandateAuthorize this class of household replenishment outcome with explicit limits and expiry.

AIPresent minimum credentialsProve identity, eligibility and authority without disclosing the complete personal profile.

BizVerify before reservingValidate the signed intent and bind the proposed order to that authority.

NetSettle with evidencePayment and checkout receipts preserve what was authorized and what executed.

YouReview exceptions onlyRoutine compliant uses stay quiet; boundary crossings return with an explanation.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:A signed chain links the person’s authority to the exact commitment, payment and receipt.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Signed, scoped authority travels farther than any single agent, so commerce begins with a mandate and ends with auditable evidence.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

AP2Trusted AgentVerifiable Credentials

Activation signal73%

2040 direct value pool$11.4B

Dominant in range draws56%

Human surfaceauthority wallet, exceptions and receipts

Control remains hereEdit or revoke the mandate; approve only uses that cross its amount, identity, timing or consequence boundary.

What could break it: A technically valid mandate can still encode a misunderstood preference or grant more downstream delegation than intended.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws56% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Adapters translate fragmented commerce

Buyer agents normalize merchant pages and APIs into partial offer schemas, but discovery, logistics and recourse still break at network boundaries.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person receives a cross-site shortlist, then approves a bundle assembled through several visible handoffs.

Conditional direct annual value pool$2.1B$499M–$5.7B sensitivity · based on agent-influenced GMV at a 0.6% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextBasic offer, fulfillment and receipt semantics converge enough to translate.

How this path can stallEvery large participant extends the schema differently and adapters become permanent tollbooths.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity42% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentfederated demand-and-supply network

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Commerce becomes a routing network

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
One household replenishment request fans out across independent buyer, seller, logistics and assurance participants, then returns as a composed outcome.

YouPublish bounded intentSend a time-limited household replenishment request without selecting a marketplace first.

NetRoute across networksGateways find compatible seller, logistics, financing and assurance participants.

BizReturn interoperable offersParticipants answer the same schema with inventory, terms, evidence and service capacity.

AICompose the outcomeRank whole outcomes rather than isolated products and preserve independent alternatives.

NetCoordinate fulfillmentCommitments and status updates travel across the selected participant graph.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The selected bundle can combine inventory, service and physical execution from participants that never shared one marketplace owner.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Demand is broadcast into interoperable buyer, seller, logistics and assurance networks instead of sent to one seller agent.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

BecknONDCUCP discovery

Activation signal60%

2040 direct value pool$13.0B

Dominant in range draws33%

Human surfacea composed outcome from many network participants

Control remains hereChoose the routing and ranking policy, inspect participant provenance and exclude any network or seller class.

What could break it: Fragmented governance can make responsibility ambiguous when several participants jointly create a failed outcome.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws33% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2040
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents buy small pieces of digital work

Machine payments make data, search, verification and generation callable without a subscription or procurement cycle.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a capped task; the assistant buys a few services and shows cost beside the resulting recommendation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$485M$225M–$803M sensitivity · based on metered machine services. Non-additive.

What must become true nextCapabilities can quote, authenticate, settle and return useful evidence cheaply.

How this path can stallMicro-payments add friction without proving that the work improved the outcome.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmachine-payable service graph

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Everything becomes a paid capability

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
Instead of purchasing a finished household replenishment package, the assistant opens paid sessions for the data, capacity and execution needed right now.

YouFund an outcome reservePlace a capped reserve behind the household replenishment policy rather than prepaying one bundle.

AIDiscover paid capabilitiesFind machine-readable services for evidence, planning, capacity and execution.

NetOpen metered sessionsAuthorize capped sessions and stream settlement as useful work is verified.

AIRecompose continuouslyReplace underperforming services without discarding the completed work or policy.

YouAudit spend and resultSee cost by capability, final evidence and every automatically stopped session.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The reserve is charged as verified work arrives, allowing the service graph to change without rebuilding a cart.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

The commercial unit becomes a session, result or stream of work rather than a cart containing a finished product.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

MPPx402MCP

Activation signal35%

2040 direct value pool$14.2B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea reserve, live spend stream and result ledger

Control remains hereSet the reserve, per-service ceilings and stop conditions; review the live spend stream or terminate every session.

What could break it: Many individually cheap calls can create runaway spend, dependency chains or incentives to prolong the task.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents inherit platform reputation

Assistants can use marketplace ratings and escrow, but identity, ranking and dispute history remain trapped inside each platform.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person sees which platform guarantee backs the recommendation and must enter that platform to resolve failure.

Conditional direct annual value pool$2.1B$364M–$5.6B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 1.2% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextAgent actions can be attributed to verified accounts and bounded payment instruments.

How this path can stallSynthetic reviews and account farming make inherited reputation less useful to machines.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentregistry-and-escrow work market

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Trust becomes the marketplace

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
The household replenishment request becomes a temporary market: providers bond a claim, independent evaluators inspect the result and escrow releases against evidence.

AIPost a verifiable jobPublish the household replenishment result, acceptance tests, deadline and escrow terms.

NetFilter identity and reputationResolve registered providers, attestations, prior outcomes and required bonds.

BizBid with evidenceProviders commit price, method, service terms and a bond against non-performance.

NetEvaluate the outcomeIndependent evaluators check delivery evidence and open a dispute window.

YouAccept or appealEscrow releases automatically inside policy; contested judgments return with the full record.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:Unknown providers can compete without requiring one platform to own identity, ranking, payment and dispute resolution.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Identity, reputation, escrow and independent evaluation let unknown agents form temporary markets around a job.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

ERC-8004ERC-8183A2A

Activation signal58%

2040 direct value pool$19.5B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfaceproof thresholds, bonds, evaluators and recourse

Control remains hereChoose reputation sources, minimum bonds, evaluators and appeal rules before the job is posted.

What could break it: Reputation can be gamed, evaluators can collude and on-chain evidence can preserve a wrong judgment permanently.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2040
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Products expose a persistent identity

Digital links and event histories let a person or assistant retrieve authoritative product, ownership and service information after purchase.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person scans or asks the assistant about the asset; service history and compatible options replace a fresh web search.

Conditional direct annual value pool$160M$40.0M–$401M sensitivity · based on physically orchestrated GMV at a 3.0% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextProduct identifiers resolve to portable, owner-accessible lifecycle data.

How this path can stallManufacturers control the history, withhold repair data or abandon the resolver.

open institutionCoordinated rules let this path cross assistants, businesses and assurance providers; the strategic contest moves to governance and routing.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentasset-to-service coordination loop

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Physical objects become the buyers

“Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.”
The physical asset notices the household replenishment condition first. Its live history explains what changed, which policy applies and what response is being prepared.

ObjDetect a state changeThe asset records the household replenishment condition with time, location, provenance and sensor evidence.

ObjCheck its service policyDetermine whether to observe, reserve capacity, request approval or stop operation.

NetFind compatible physical serviceQuery parts, technicians, facilities and logistics against the asset identity and history.

AIAuthorize the responseApply the owner’s mandate, preserve alternatives and bind the selected physical plan.

ObjVerify the new stateRecord completion evidence, update the twin and release payment only for the verified result.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The asset’s condition, service history and verified result form one continuing commercial record instead of separate shopping and maintenance journeys.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Assets publish their own condition and service history, allowing a vehicle, appliance, building or inventory item to initiate commerce.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

GS1 Digital LinkEPCISdigital twins

Activation signal47%

2040 direct value pool$36.1B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea living asset timeline with revocable operating policy

Control remains hereControl which sensors and service classes may initiate action, require approval for irreversible work and revoke the asset mandate.

What could break it: Bad sensor data, compromised twins or manufacturer-controlled histories can trigger unnecessary work or lock owners into captive service.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From one assistant to an agent ecology

Eight forms can coexist—and diverge.

These are independent activation signals from the same structural state, not stages, market shares or probabilities. A seller site can persist while pooled demand, commissioned supply or physical orchestration grows beside it.

strongest form outlined
physical implications authored

interaction form2029203220362040

Site referralPhysical fulfillment remains downstream of a conventional order.

77%

51%

26%

13%

Delegated checkoutThe seller fulfills an agent-authored order rather than a person-built cart.

20%

35%

36%

29%

Bilateral agent tradeInventory, service capacity and delivery can be reserved machine-to-machine.

25%

33%

Terms marketThe physical plan changes before checkout because timing and capacity are part of the bargain.

17%

33%

Standing outcome policySupply, repair, transport or care coordination continue without a new shopping session.

12%

25%

Collective procurementNeighborhoods, fleets or firms reshape routes, inventory and capacity through coordinated demand.

14%

26%

34%

Commissioned supplyProduction schedules, components and facilities respond to intent rather than forecasted shelf demand.

12%

23%

Embodied orchestrationThe purchasing interface becomes a live map of actions, safety boundaries and revocable authority.

23%

39%

Delegation frontier · published path

Where autonomy stops depends on the need.

The aggregate market state is identical down each column. Only the disclosed arena priors change. Each cell reports its preset surface and the full interface spread across 512 range-covering structural draws; segment widths are sensitivity coverage, not probability.

engine-selected interface + full range coverage · unanchored priors · illustrative UI

commerce arena2029203220362040

Ski gogglesexplore this needapproval100% selectednegotiate64% selectedpolicy56% selectedambient15% selected

Household replenishmentselected lensapproval100% selectedpolicy64% selectedambient58% selectedambient91% selected

Everyday mobilityexplore this needapproval100% selectednegotiate64% selectedpolicy56% selectedambient15% selected

Complex travelexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval99% selectednegotiate56% selectedpolicy15% selected

Care coordinationexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval99% selectednegotiate56% selectedpolicy15% selected

approvalnegotiatepolicyambient

Published path · structural model

Fragmented open web

No runtime fully closes the door, but no coordination layer makes every buyer instrument and seller rail work together either. Merchants repeat integrations, agents maintain adapters and cross-rail conversion remains partial. By 2029Q2 agents carry 19% of online GMV and 21% of attempts settle — better than the gardens, but three points of GMV and eight points of wallet adoption behind coordinated open rails.

2040 machine counterparties23%

continuous commerce7%

published 2040 p10–p9012%–35%512 structural draws

The whole path in four changes

One need moves from request to operating policy.

story first · model layers after

2029 · assisted commerceIntent becomes a mandate

The person gives software a bounded right to act.

purchase: approval bundle
agent-executed: $103B–$159B
machine cast: 3 role classes
human: operator

2032 · delegated commerceBusinesses become callable

Catalog, checkout, fulfillment and support become machine-addressable capabilities.

purchase: negotiation room
agent-executed: $190B–$379B
machine cast: 5 role classes
human: operator

2036 · delegated commerceThe market gains counterparties

Specialized buyer, seller, trust and operating agents coordinate the purchase.

purchase: policy console
agent-executed: $326B–$790B
machine cast: 8 role classes
human: approver and recourse owner

2040 · delegated commerceThe purchase becomes a policy

Standing intent allocates money and physical capacity until a boundary is crossed.

purchase: ambient market
agent-executed: $499B–$1.3T
machine cast: 10 role classes
human: approver and recourse owner

Conditional annual ranges overlap and are not valuations. Role classes are functional activations above the disclosed threshold—not agent population or forecast headcount.

2029

assisted commerce · model-triggered authored event

Open protocols produce an adapter economy.

No universal coordination layer wins, so agents and merchants rely on adapters to translate instruments, terms and receipts.

2029

Interface evolution · adaptive agent store · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Fragmented open web

One intent, one approval

State the goal, inspect the evidence and approve this purchase.

adaptive agent store · approval bundle · engine selected

Agent influenced$299B–$343B

Agent executed$103B–$159B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$88.5B–$139B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Fragmented open web · 2029

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Restock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

I’ll act inside your single-use mandate, preserve The person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRAgent-assembled storeHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfaceready for approvalFragmented open web2029

IntentRestock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

within mandate

FallbackLocal reserve · fewer refill optionsHeld if the primary supplier cannot prove stock or delivery · reconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision

+$12

One signed commitment · one-shot settlementEnter seller presence

terms verifiedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2029-04proof attached

Seller authoredoffer, imagery and fulfillment promiseYour agent shapedranking, comparison and mandate fitAssurance checkedmulti-party evidence

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2029

The person approves one bounded commitment and receives a receipt plus execution watch.

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

Your agent handledThe buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritysingle-use mandate

Market topologyadapter mesh

Identitytranslated credentials

Price formationposted bundle

Settlementone-shot settlement

Human attentionapprove this purchase

Trust surfacetranslated credentials, multi-party evidence, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsAssembles a ranked offer, counterparty, settlement and assurance bundle, then waits for one explicit authorization. Sourcing uses ranked shortlist from an adapter mesh; posted bundles set the price before one-shot settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksreconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision; the person’s attention mode is “approve this purchase.”

autonomy8%

delegation fit66%

market reach60%

exception risk23%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 100%negotiate 0%policy 0%ambient 0%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

2029 · Fragmented open web
adapter mesh
Site referral 79%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

A delivery operator receives the signed fulfillment terms only after approval; the receipt follows every item and substitution into the home.

Control returns hereThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The visible change is compression: product search, seller choice, service, payment and delivery arrive as one proposal. Human attention concentrates at the moment of authorization. At the 2029 handoff, 20% of demand is delegated while only 2% has a machine on both sides. The experience therefore begins as an approval bundle.

What remains contested: The adapter mesh preserves contestability, but its translated credentials model makes assurance and exception recovery harder to reconcile across providers.

Active machine cast · model-derivedBuyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent

Coordination burden3%range 2%–3%

Human roleoperatorowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The structural handoff begins as an approval bundle.

2029Q2 → 2029

Interfaceapproval bundlestructural starting state

Human attentionapprove this purchasestructural starting state

Agent mandatesingle-use mandateautonomy starts at 8%

Market boundary60% reachablereach starts at 60% · exception risk starts at 23%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · branch-specific event at the near-term handoff19.8% of demand is delegated, while seller-agent adoption begins at 7.8% after the 2029Q2 handoff.Authored consequence: Compatibility becomes a competitive service whose errors are discovered during reconciliation and recovery.

Event sensitivity · branch-fixed handoff event

Open protocols produce an adapter economy.100%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Open protocols produce an adapter economy. 100%

Model competence22%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability23%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity10%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand20%

machine on both sides2%

continuous commerce2%

physical execution0%

pooled demand0%

adaptive supply0%

governance capacity49%

adversarial loss8%

2029Q2 → structural 2029model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandThe structural layer carries the branch’s final agent-GMV share into its starting delegated-demand state.20%near-term agent GMV 20% → 20%

seller-agent footholdA disclosed 12% handoff factor converts rail-capable sellers into the initial seller-agent foothold.8%sellers answering a rail 65% → 8%

governance capacityPortable authority, liability clarity and branch coordination are averaged into the initial governance capacity.49%structural priors

physical execution footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds the small share of agent demand that can already cause and verify physical execution.0%near-term agent GMV + structural prior 20% → 0%

pooled demand footholdDelegated demand and the pooled-mandate prior seed the initial ability to bargain across more than one buyer.0%agent GMV + pooled-mandate prior 20% → 0%

adaptive supply footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds supply that can be configured from machine-readable demand rather than selected from a fixed catalog.0%seller-agent foothold

adversarial lossThe failed-attempt share and adversarial-pressure prior seed loss pressure; this is a structural mapping, not observed loss.8%failed attempts + pressure prior 78% → 8%

share of demand delegated starts at 19.8%; seller-agent adoption starts at 7.8%; share with machine counterparties starts at 1.5%; share negotiated starts at 1.6%; share run continuously starts at 2.0%.

No new actor class enters yet; adoption and institutional state drive this transition.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2032

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Credential translation becomes its own market.

Translation providers assemble partial authority and reputation across incompatible runtimes, sellers and payment rails.

2032

Interface evolution · live seller-presence market · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Fragmented open web

Terms become negotiable

Set a bargaining envelope and review only counteroffers that cross a boundary.

live seller-presence market · negotiation room · engine selected

Agent influenced$493B–$772B

Agent executed$190B–$379B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$169B–$340B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Fragmented open web · 2032

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Replace the weekly essentials order before Friday. Negotiate substitutions, delivery and the $190 ceiling.

I’ll act inside your bounded negotiation mandate, preserve The person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRLive seller presencesHousehold replenishment · personal agent surface3 merchant-authored offersFragmented open web2032

ceiling $190delivery before Fridayallergens locked

Supplier agent A$184same-day · 92% refillablebest policy fit

Supplier agent B$171two-day · 1 substitutioncountered

Supplier agent C$189same-day · weak provenancerejected

Buyer agent · posted bundle · translated credentials · multi-party evidence

parallel requests for quote across an adapter mesh. Trading brand flexibility for less packaging while allergy and delivery boundaries remain locked.

offer window · 07:42 remainingmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2032-04proof attached

Seller authoredprice, terms and differentiated experienceYour agent shapednegotiation, policy fit and counterfactualsAssurance checkedmulti-party evidence

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2032

The agent binds the best policy-compliant bundle while preserving the negotiation record.

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

Your agent handledBuyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritybounded negotiation mandate

Market topologyadapter mesh

Identitytranslated credentials

Price formationposted bundle

Settlementone-shot settlement

Human attentionreview boundary crossings

Trust surfacetranslated credentials, multi-party evidence, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsRuns parallel requests for quote, trades only the arena’s flexible terms and rejects every offer outside its mandate. Sourcing uses parallel requests for quote across an adapter mesh; posted bundles set the price before one-shot settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksreconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision; the person’s attention mode is “review boundary crossings.”

autonomy13%

delegation fit66%

market reach60%

exception risk22%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 2%negotiate 73%policy 25%ambient 0%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 73% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

2032 · Fragmented open web
adapter mesh
Site referral 65%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

Buyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Inventory is reserved, the delivery route is recomputed and the rejected substitute never enters the fulfillment queue.

Control returns hereThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The cart stops being the center of the transaction. Buyer and seller agents exchange terms inside a mandate, while the person sees the boundary of the bargain rather than every offer. Since 2029, machine-counterparty share rises by 3.7 percentage points and continuous commerce falls by 0.3 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from approval bundle to negotiation room.

What remains contested: The adapter mesh preserves contestability, but its translated credentials model makes assurance and exception recovery harder to reconcile across providers.

Active machine cast · model-derivedBuyer agent · Seller agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Routing agent

Coordination burden3%range 2%–4%

Human roleoperatorowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from approval bundle to negotiation room.

2029 → 2032

Interfacenegotiation roomfrom approval bundle

Human attentionreview boundary crossingsfrom approve this purchase

Agent mandatebounded negotiation mandateautonomy +5.3 pp to 13%

Market boundary60% reachablereach +0.0 pp to 60% · exception risk -0.9 pp to 22%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · 35.0% ≤ identity portability < 65.0%Identity portability is 46.0% and machine counterparties reach 5.3%.Authored consequence: The market stays contestable, but buyers must decide which translator can be trusted with accumulated commercial context.

Event sensitivity · selected 38% · leading alternate 31%

Adapters inherit the authority problem.31%

Credential translation becomes its own market.38%

A portability compact breaks the adapter bottleneck.31%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Adapters inherit the authority problem. 31% · Credential translation becomes its own market. 38% · A portability compact breaks the adapter bottleneck. 31%

Model competence52%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability36%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity23%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand32%

machine on both sides5%

continuous commerce2%

physical execution3%

pooled demand5%

adaptive supply2%

governance capacity49%

adversarial loss7%

2029 → 2032model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+12.0 pp2029 20% → now 32%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+17.6 pp2029 8% → now 25%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+3.7 pp2029 2% → now 5%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.−0.3 pp2029 2% → now 2%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+2.7 pp2029 0% → now 3%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+4.5 pp2029 0% → now 5%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+1.4 pp2029 0% → now 2%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.−0.9 pp2029 8% → now 7%

share of demand delegated rises to 31.8% (+12.0%); seller-agent adoption rises to 25.3% (+17.6%); share with machine counterparties rises to 5.3% (+3.7%); share negotiated rises to 2.9% (+1.3%); share run continuously falls to 1.7% (-0.3%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2036

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Seller agents become negotiating counterparties.

Seller agents negotiate through overlapping adapter networks, creating a market for normalization, evidence and dispute routing.

2036

Interface evolution · policy + exception surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Fragmented open web

The purchase becomes a policy

Define the policy, review exceptions and a periodic digest, and adjust constraints.

policy + exception surface · policy console · engine selected

Agent influenced$759B–$1.4T

Agent executed$326B–$790B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$285B–$715B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Fragmented open web · 2036

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Keep household essentials in stock below $480 a month; substitute only inside the allergy and waste policy.

I’ll act inside your rolling category policy, preserve The person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold essentials policyHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacemonitoringFragmented open web2036

Outcomethree-week reserve

Ceiling$480 / month

Attention1 exception

Maintain staple reserve above 14 dayson track

Prefer refill before replacementmonitoring

Substitution would cross allergy boundaryreview

Decision requested · multi-party evidenceApprove an allergy-safe local substitute while the supply agent reroutes the remaining basket?standing search across an adapter mesh · reconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision

policy active · exception isolatedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2036-04proof attached

Seller authoredservice capability when an exception changes providersYour agent shapedcontinuous policy, memory and exception routingAssurance checkedmulti-party evidence

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2036

A sequence of reversible commitments replaces isolated search, cart and checkout sessions.

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

Your agent handledThe agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authorityrolling category policy

Market topologyadapter mesh

Identitytranslated credentials

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Human attentionreview exceptions and digest

Trust surfacetranslated credentials, multi-party evidence, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsMonitors the selected outcome, opens and closes commitments, and routes genuine exceptions to the person. Sourcing uses standing search across an adapter mesh; buyer and seller agents negotiate the bundle before conditional atomic settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksreconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision; the person’s attention mode is “review exceptions and digest.”

autonomy21%

delegation fit66%

market reach60%

exception risk22%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 8%policy 67%ambient 25%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 67% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

2036 · Fragmented open web
adapter mesh
Site referral 49%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Local refill, delivery and pickup operators receive just-in-time commitments; packaging and unused inventory are collected on the return leg.

Control returns hereThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The unit of commerce changes from an item to an outcome. Purchases become reversible commitments managed against a standing policy, with the person returning for exceptions and review. Since 2032, machine-counterparty share rises by 8.6 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 1.7 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from negotiation room to policy console.

What remains contested: The adapter mesh preserves contestability, but its translated credentials model makes assurance and exception recovery harder to reconcile across providers.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Routing agent · Market operator · Physical operator · Procurement agent

Coordination burden5%range 4%–8%

Human roleapprover and recourse ownerowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from negotiation room to policy console.

2032 → 2036

Interfacepolicy consolefrom negotiation room

Human attentionreview exceptions and digestfrom review boundary crossings

Agent mandaterolling category policyautonomy +7.5 pp to 21%

Market boundary60% reachablereach +0.0 pp to 60% · exception risk +0.3 pp to 22%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · 6.0% ≤ negotiated transactions < 18.0%7.1% of transactions are negotiated and seller-agent adoption reaches 45.1%.Authored consequence: A deal can clear without a dominant platform, yet no single operator owns the complete evidence needed to unwind it.

Event sensitivity · selected 68% · leading alternate 31%

Translation cost caps machine negotiation.31%

Seller agents become negotiating counterparties.68%

Competing adapters converge on auction semantics.1%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Translation cost caps machine negotiation. 31% · Seller agents become negotiating counterparties. 68% · Competing adapters converge on auction semantics. 1%

Model competence75%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability50%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity34%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand43%

machine on both sides14%

continuous commerce3%

physical execution9%

pooled demand8%

adaptive supply5%

governance capacity49%

adversarial loss8%

2032 → 2036model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+11.5 pp2032 32% → now 43%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+19.8 pp2032 25% → now 45%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+8.6 pp2032 5% → now 14%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+1.7 pp2032 2% → now 3%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+6.5 pp2032 3% → now 9%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+3.8 pp2032 5% → now 8%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+3.6 pp2032 2% → now 5%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+0.3 pp2032 7% → now 8%

share of demand delegated rises to 43.3% (+11.5%); seller-agent adoption rises to 45.1% (+19.8%); share with machine counterparties rises to 13.8% (+8.6%); share negotiated rises to 7.1% (+4.2%); share run continuously rises to 3.4% (+1.7%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2040

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Persistent agents remain bounded by reconciliation debt.

Persistent agents compose standing services across an open web whose credentials, receipts and recovery paths remain only partly aligned.

2040

Interface evolution · ambient agent surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Fragmented open web

Commerce becomes continuous

Choose values and limits, audit drift and retain the right to pause or revoke.

ambient agent surface · ambient market · engine selected

Agent influenced$1.1T–$2.2T

Agent executed$499B–$1.3T

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$417B–$1.2T

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Fragmented open web · 2040

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold reserveHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacecontinuousFragmented open web2040

Protected reserve21.4 days

Policy drift0.8%

continuous

Staples42%

Cleaning28%

Personal care20%

Uncommitted reserve10%

Agent event · programmable escrowAllocation shifted after a supplier recall; verified local stock replaced the affected items.translated credentials · multi-party evidence · no policy boundary crossed

Last human review: 12 days ago · review exceptions and digestPause or revoke

reserve reconciled · 14:32 UTCmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2040-04proof attached

Seller authoredcapability and fulfillment state on demandYour agent shapedquiet orchestration; seller presence appears only for novelty or riskAssurance checkedmulti-party evidence

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2040

The commercial interface becomes a live policy with reserves, receipts, drift alerts and revocation—not a store or cart.

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

Your agent handledThe agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritycontinuous reserve policy

Market topologyadapter mesh

Identitytranslated credentials

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementprogrammable escrow

Human attentionreview exceptions and digest

Trust surfacetranslated credentials, multi-party evidence, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsForecasts demand, negotiates capacity and continuously reallocates a protected reserve across competing resources. Sourcing uses continuous allocation across an adapter mesh; buyer and seller agents negotiate the bundle before programmable escrow executes the commitment.

When it breaksreconcile signed adapter logs, pause the disputed leg and ask for a bounded human decision; the person’s attention mode is “review exceptions and digest.”

autonomy28%

delegation fit66%

market reach60%

exception risk23%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 0%policy 32%ambient 68%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 68% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

2040 · Fragmented open web
adapter mesh
Site referral 38%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

The recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

Control returns hereNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The transaction recedes from view. Capacity, money and service are continuously reallocated behind a protected reserve, so the human interface becomes drift, evidence and revocation. Since 2036, machine-counterparty share rises by 8.9 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 3.2 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from policy console to ambient market.

What remains contested: The adapter mesh preserves contestability, but its translated credentials model makes assurance and exception recovery harder to reconcile across providers.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Routing agent · Market operator · Physical operator · Assurance agent · Procurement agent · Supply agent

Coordination burden8%range 5%–12%

Human roleapprover and recourse ownerowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from policy console to ambient market.

2036 → 2040

Interfaceambient marketfrom policy console

Human attentionreview exceptions and digestunchanged from review exceptions and digest

Agent mandatecontinuous reserve policyautonomy +6.7 pp to 28%

Market boundary60% reachablereach +0.0 pp to 60% · exception risk +1.2 pp to 23%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · continuous commerce < 12.0%6.6% of commerce runs continuously while market concentration is 46.9%.Authored consequence: Continuity depends on translators staying solvent, interoperable and accountable long after the original purchase.

Event sensitivity · selected 86% · leading alternate 14%

Persistent agents remain bounded by reconciliation debt.86%

Policy brokers assemble continuous service across the open web.14%

Continuous clearing emerges across adapter federations.0%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Persistent agents remain bounded by reconciliation debt. 86% · Policy brokers assemble continuous service across the open web. 14% · Continuous clearing emerges across adapter federations. 0%

Model competence87%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability61%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity42%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand51%

machine on both sides23%

continuous commerce7%

physical execution17%

pooled demand11%

adaptive supply10%

governance capacity49%

adversarial loss9%

2036 → 2040model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+7.5 pp2036 43% → now 51%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+12.4 pp2036 45% → now 57%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+8.9 pp2036 14% → now 23%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+3.2 pp2036 3% → now 7%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+7.1 pp2036 9% → now 17%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+2.7 pp2036 8% → now 11%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+4.4 pp2036 5% → now 10%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+1.2 pp2036 8% → now 9%

share of demand delegated rises to 50.7% (+7.5%); seller-agent adoption rises to 57.5% (+12.4%); share with machine counterparties rises to 22.7% (+8.9%); share negotiated rises to 12.7% (+5.6%); share run continuously rises to 6.6% (+3.2%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

Expand the forces behind this futureeconomic envelope · six protocol paths · full agent ecology

Economic envelope · annual U.S. retail e-commerce flows

A dollar can be influenced, executed, retained—or captured as infrastructure.

512 paired range-covering draws
one observed 2026 anchor
not a valuation or probability

agent influencedagent executedmerchant-routed after channel value + loss

2029$1.6T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $299B–$343Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $103B–$159Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $88.5B–$139Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $3.0B–$7.5Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $6.1B–$16.9Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $188M–$677Mnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2032$1.9T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $493B–$772Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $190B–$379Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $169B–$340Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $6.1B–$17.0Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $10.0B–$37.9Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $411M–$1.8Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2036$2.4T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $759B–$1.4Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $326B–$790Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $285B–$715Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $10.8B–$34.4Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $14.3B–$90.4Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $911M–$4.8Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2040$3.1T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $1.1T–$2.2Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $499B–$1.3Tauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $417B–$1.2Tafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $15.9B–$56.4Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $23.5B–$175Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $1.7B–$9.9Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

Agentic commerce paths · 2029 → 2040

Six futures can grow from the same need.

four stages per path
activation signals can coexist
experiences = illustrative

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Stores ship their first bounded agents

A merchant-native shopper agent joins search, product reasoning, cart and care in one context while typed tools keep price, availability and policy grounded in store systems.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person asks the store for an outcome, sees a progressively rendered comparison and cart, then applies the prepared checkout from inside the conversation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$3.4B$1.0B–$8.0B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 2.5% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextThe harness grounds every claim, renders only server-issued records and keeps payment behind a real approval surface.

How this path can stallThe agent becomes a polished chat layer over missing inventory, weak policy data or manipulative ranking.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmerchant-owned agent harness

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Every store becomes an agent

YouReturn to the relationshipDescribe the household replenishment result; inspect which preferences the store remembered and correct any stale ones.

AIPlan with one contextUse search, research, planning, cart and care skills without handing the conversation across lossy domain agents.

BizRender authoritative UITyped tools return server-validated product, comparison, cart, order and policy components.

YouApply the staged purchaseThe agent may propose and prepare; a person or explicit policy applies the consequential commitment.

BizOperate and careThe merchant agent watches inventory and service, stages operational changes and keeps the seller accountable.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Businesses run persistent shopper and merchant agents over typed commerce tools, so the store can research, render, transact and care for the relationship without collapsing into a generic assistant.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

Commerce-agent harnessUCPMCP / backend tools

Activation signal50%

2040 direct value pool$21.8B

Dominant in range draws44%

Human surfacea persistent seller conversation with typed product, cart, order and approval surfaces

Control remains hereApprove the order, inspect or delete remembered preferences and require a person or standing policy before the merchant agent can apply consequential store changes.

What could break it: The seller can turn memory and conversational UI into a captive persuasion surface, while unsafe tool results or weak approval gates can move money or change the business.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws44% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

One-use authority becomes legible

Agent payments, identity assertions and receipts begin recording why a purchase was allowed, not only that a payment succeeded.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a tightly scoped purchase token and receives a receipt that links intent, seller, amount and result.

Conditional direct annual value pool$956M$205M–$2.9B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 0.7% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextWallets and merchants can represent purpose, scope, expiry and revocation consistently.

How this path can stallMandates remain unreadable legal objects or are reduced to reusable payment credentials.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity92% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentcredentialed agent-to-merchant request

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Permission replaces checkout

YouGrant a scoped mandateAuthorize this class of household replenishment outcome with explicit limits and expiry.

AIPresent minimum credentialsProve identity, eligibility and authority without disclosing the complete personal profile.

BizVerify before reservingValidate the signed intent and bind the proposed order to that authority.

NetSettle with evidencePayment and checkout receipts preserve what was authorized and what executed.

YouReview exceptions onlyRoutine compliant uses stay quiet; boundary crossings return with an explanation.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:A signed chain links the person’s authority to the exact commitment, payment and receipt.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Signed, scoped authority travels farther than any single agent, so commerce begins with a mandate and ends with auditable evidence.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

AP2Trusted AgentVerifiable Credentials

Activation signal51%

2040 direct value pool$6.1B

Dominant in range draws56%

Human surfaceauthority wallet, exceptions and receipts

Control remains hereEdit or revoke the mandate; approve only uses that cross its amount, identity, timing or consequence boundary.

What could break it: A technically valid mandate can still encode a misunderstood preference or grant more downstream delegation than intended.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws56% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Adapters translate fragmented commerce

Buyer agents normalize merchant pages and APIs into partial offer schemas, but discovery, logistics and recourse still break at network boundaries.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person receives a cross-site shortlist, then approves a bundle assembled through several visible handoffs.

Conditional direct annual value pool$1.9B$449M–$5.1B sensitivity · based on agent-influenced GMV at a 0.6% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextBasic offer, fulfillment and receipt semantics converge enough to translate.

How this path can stallEvery large participant extends the schema differently and adapters become permanent tollbooths.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity8% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentfederated demand-and-supply network

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Commerce becomes a routing network

YouPublish bounded intentSend a time-limited household replenishment request without selecting a marketplace first.

NetRoute across networksGateways find compatible seller, logistics, financing and assurance participants.

BizReturn interoperable offersParticipants answer the same schema with inventory, terms, evidence and service capacity.

AICompose the outcomeRank whole outcomes rather than isolated products and preserve independent alternatives.

NetCoordinate fulfillmentCommitments and status updates travel across the selected participant graph.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The selected bundle can combine inventory, service and physical execution from participants that never shared one marketplace owner.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Demand is broadcast into interoperable buyer, seller, logistics and assurance networks instead of sent to one seller agent.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

BecknONDCUCP discovery

Activation signal38%

2040 direct value pool$9.4B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea composed outcome from many network participants

Control remains hereChoose the routing and ranking policy, inspect participant provenance and exclude any network or seller class.

What could break it: Fragmented governance can make responsibility ambiguous when several participants jointly create a failed outcome.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2040
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents buy small pieces of digital work

Machine payments make data, search, verification and generation callable without a subscription or procurement cycle.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a capped task; the assistant buys a few services and shows cost beside the resulting recommendation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$377M$188M–$677M sensitivity · based on metered machine services. Non-additive.

What must become true nextCapabilities can quote, authenticate, settle and return useful evidence cheaply.

How this path can stallMicro-payments add friction without proving that the work improved the outcome.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmachine-payable service graph

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Everything becomes a paid capability

YouFund an outcome reservePlace a capped reserve behind the household replenishment policy rather than prepaying one bundle.

AIDiscover paid capabilitiesFind machine-readable services for evidence, planning, capacity and execution.

NetOpen metered sessionsAuthorize capped sessions and stream settlement as useful work is verified.

AIRecompose continuouslyReplace underperforming services without discarding the completed work or policy.

YouAudit spend and resultSee cost by capability, final evidence and every automatically stopped session.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The reserve is charged as verified work arrives, allowing the service graph to change without rebuilding a cart.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

The commercial unit becomes a session, result or stream of work rather than a cart containing a finished product.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

MPPx402MCP

Activation signal22%

2040 direct value pool$4.1B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea reserve, live spend stream and result ledger

Control remains hereSet the reserve, per-service ceilings and stop conditions; review the live spend stream or terminate every session.

What could break it: Many individually cheap calls can create runaway spend, dependency chains or incentives to prolong the task.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2040
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents inherit platform reputation

Assistants can use marketplace ratings and escrow, but identity, ranking and dispute history remain trapped inside each platform.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person sees which platform guarantee backs the recommendation and must enter that platform to resolve failure.

Conditional direct annual value pool$1.6B$308M–$4.8B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 1.2% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextAgent actions can be attributed to verified accounts and bounded payment instruments.

How this path can stallSynthetic reviews and account farming make inherited reputation less useful to machines.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentregistry-and-escrow work market

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Trust becomes the marketplace

AIPost a verifiable jobPublish the household replenishment result, acceptance tests, deadline and escrow terms.

NetFilter identity and reputationResolve registered providers, attestations, prior outcomes and required bonds.

BizBid with evidenceProviders commit price, method, service terms and a bond against non-performance.

NetEvaluate the outcomeIndependent evaluators check delivery evidence and open a dispute window.

YouAccept or appealEscrow releases automatically inside policy; contested judgments return with the full record.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:Unknown providers can compete without requiring one platform to own identity, ranking, payment and dispute resolution.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Identity, reputation, escrow and independent evaluation let unknown agents form temporary markets around a job.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

ERC-8004ERC-8183A2A

Activation signal35%

2040 direct value pool$10.5B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfaceproof thresholds, bonds, evaluators and recourse

Control remains hereChoose reputation sources, minimum bonds, evaluators and appeal rules before the job is posted.

What could break it: Reputation can be gamed, evaluators can collude and on-chain evidence can preserve a wrong judgment permanently.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2040
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Products expose a persistent identity

Digital links and event histories let a person or assistant retrieve authoritative product, ownership and service information after purchase.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person scans or asks the assistant about the asset; service history and compatible options replace a fresh web search.

Conditional direct annual value pool$144M$35.9M–$360M sensitivity · based on physically orchestrated GMV at a 3.0% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextProduct identifiers resolve to portable, owner-accessible lifecycle data.

How this path can stallManufacturers control the history, withhold repair data or abandon the resolver.

organic institutionThis path advances through adapters and partial standards; translation expands reach but remains a recurring cost and source of failure.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentasset-to-service coordination loop

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Physical objects become the buyers

ObjDetect a state changeThe asset records the household replenishment condition with time, location, provenance and sensor evidence.

ObjCheck its service policyDetermine whether to observe, reserve capacity, request approval or stop operation.

NetFind compatible physical serviceQuery parts, technicians, facilities and logistics against the asset identity and history.

AIAuthorize the responseApply the owner’s mandate, preserve alternatives and bind the selected physical plan.

ObjVerify the new stateRecord completion evidence, update the twin and release payment only for the verified result.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The asset’s condition, service history and verified result form one continuing commercial record instead of separate shopping and maintenance journeys.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Assets publish their own condition and service history, allowing a vehicle, appliance, building or inventory item to initiate commerce.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

GS1 Digital LinkEPCISdigital twins

Activation signal35%

2040 direct value pool$15.3B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea living asset timeline with revocable operating policy

Control remains hereControl which sensors and service classes may initiate action, require approval for irreversible work and revoke the asset mandate.

What could break it: Bad sensor data, compromised twins or manufacturer-controlled histories can trigger unnecessary work or lock owners into captive service.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From one assistant to an agent ecology

Eight forms can coexist—and diverge.

strongest form outlined
physical implications authored

interaction form2029203220362040

Site referralPhysical fulfillment remains downstream of a conventional order.

79%

65%

49%

38%

Delegated checkoutThe seller fulfills an agent-authored order rather than a person-built cart.

17%

26%

32%

34%

Bilateral agent tradeInventory, service capacity and delivery can be reserved machine-to-machine.

10%

16%

Terms marketThe physical plan changes before checkout because timing and capacity are part of the bargain.

10%

Standing outcome policySupply, repair, transport or care coordination continue without a new shopping session.

Collective procurementNeighborhoods, fleets or firms reshape routes, inventory and capacity through coordinated demand.

11%

Commissioned supplyProduction schedules, components and facilities respond to intent rather than forecasted shelf demand.

10%

Embodied orchestrationThe purchasing interface becomes a live map of actions, safety boundaries and revocable authority.

17%

Delegation frontier · published path

Where autonomy stops depends on the need.

engine-selected interface + full range coverage · unanchored priors · illustrative UI

commerce arena2029203220362040

Ski gogglesexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval75% selectednegotiate67% selectedpolicy66% selected

Household replenishmentselected lensapproval100% selectednegotiate73% selectedpolicy67% selectedambient68% selected

Everyday mobilityexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval75% selectednegotiate67% selectedpolicy66% selected

Complex travelexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval100% selectedapproval75% selectednegotiate66% selected

Care coordinationexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval100% selectedapproval75% selectednegotiate66% selected

approvalnegotiatepolicyambient

Published path · structural model

Walled gardens

Platform tokens are exclusive. Chat runtimes block third-party rails almost half the time, take rates run at a tenth or more, and the open protocols cost a merchant three times as much to integrate as the platform's own checkout. Agents still grow — 15% of online GMV by 2029Q2 — but on cards and platform checkout, with wallets stuck below a fifth of buyers and cross-garden purchases a coin flip.

2040 machine counterparties16%

continuous commerce4%

published 2040 p10–p908%–25%512 structural draws

The whole path in four changes

One need moves from request to operating policy.

story first · model layers after

2029 · assisted commerceIntent becomes a mandate

The person gives software a bounded right to act.

purchase: approval bundle
agent-executed: $76.7B–$119B
machine cast: 3 role classes
human: operator

2032 · assisted commerceBusinesses become callable

Catalog, checkout, fulfillment and support become machine-addressable capabilities.

purchase: approval bundle
agent-executed: $148B–$308B
machine cast: 4 role classes
human: operator

2036 · delegated commerceThe market gains counterparties

Specialized buyer, seller, trust and operating agents coordinate the purchase.

purchase: policy console
agent-executed: $259B–$647B
machine cast: 8 role classes
human: approver and recourse owner

2040 · delegated commerceThe purchase becomes a policy

Standing intent allocates money and physical capacity until a boundary is crossed.

purchase: policy console
agent-executed: $396B–$1.1T
machine cast: 9 role classes
human: approver and recourse owner

Conditional annual ranges overlap and are not valuations. Role classes are functional activations above the disclosed threshold—not agent population or forecast headcount.

2029

assisted commerce · model-triggered authored event

Distribution turns checkout into a platform boundary.

Integrated runtimes make agent checkout coherent inside their own marketplaces while third-party reach remains conditional.

2029

Interface evolution · adaptive agent store · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Walled gardens

One intent, one approval

State the goal, inspect the evidence and approve this purchase.

adaptive agent store · approval bundle · engine selected

Agent influenced$235B–$270B

Agent executed$76.7B–$119B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$63.0B–$98.5B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Walled gardens · 2029

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Restock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

I’ll act inside your single-use mandate, preserve The person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRAgent-assembled storeHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfaceready for approvalWalled gardens2029

IntentRestock two weeks of household essentials under $190. Preserve allergy rules and prefer refillable packaging.

within mandate

FallbackLocal reserve · fewer refill optionsHeld if the primary supplier cannot prove stock or delivery · invoke the platform guarantee or appeal inside the runtime, with no portable fallback if the account is suspended

+$12

One signed commitment · one-shot settlementEnter seller presence

terms verifiedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2029-04proof attached

Seller authoredoffer, imagery and fulfillment promiseYour agent shapedranking, comparison and mandate fitAssurance checkedplatform guarantee

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2029

The person approves one bounded commitment and receives a receipt plus execution watch.

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

Your agent handledThe buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritysingle-use mandate

Market topologymanaged marketplace

Identityruntime-bound account

Price formationposted bundle

Settlementone-shot settlement

Human attentionapprove this purchase

Trust surfaceruntime-bound account, platform guarantee, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsAssembles a ranked offer, counterparty, settlement and assurance bundle, then waits for one explicit authorization. Sourcing uses ranked shortlist from a managed marketplace; posted bundles set the price before one-shot settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksinvoke the platform guarantee or appeal inside the runtime, with no portable fallback if the account is suspended; the person’s attention mode is “approve this purchase.”

autonomy6%

delegation fit66%

market reach46%

exception risk26%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 100%negotiate 0%policy 0%ambient 0%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

2029 · Walled gardens
managed marketplace
Site referral 83%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

At the kitchen table, the person sees one proposed two-week basket, its substitutions, delivery window and total—not a page of search results.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The buyer agent checks the household mandate, compares seller evidence and assembles the primary basket plus a held fallback.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

A delivery operator receives the signed fulfillment terms only after approval; the receipt follows every item and substitution into the home.

Control returns hereThe person approves the basket once and must approve anything that crosses the allergy rule.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The visible change is compression: product search, seller choice, service, payment and delivery arrive as one proposal. Human attention concentrates at the moment of authorization. At the 2029 handoff, 16% of demand is delegated while only 1% has a machine on both sides. The experience therefore begins as an approval bundle.

What remains contested: The managed marketplace makes routine execution coherent, but a runtime-bound account concentrates ranking, appeal and exit inside the runtime.

Active machine cast · model-derivedBuyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent

Coordination burden3%range 2%–3%

Human roleoperatorowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The structural handoff begins as an approval bundle.

2029Q2 → 2029

Interfaceapproval bundlestructural starting state

Human attentionapprove this purchasestructural starting state

Agent mandatesingle-use mandateautonomy starts at 6%

Market boundary46% reachablereach starts at 46% · exception risk starts at 26%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · branch-specific event at the near-term handoff15.5% of demand is delegated, while seller-agent adoption begins at 7.7% after the 2029Q2 handoff.Authored consequence: Merchant access to delegated demand now depends on platform distribution and ranking policy.

Event sensitivity · branch-fixed handoff event

Distribution turns checkout into a platform boundary.100%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Distribution turns checkout into a platform boundary. 100%

Model competence20%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability18%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity6%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand16%

machine on both sides1%

continuous commerce2%

physical execution0%

pooled demand0%

adaptive supply0%

governance capacity37%

adversarial loss9%

2029Q2 → structural 2029model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandThe structural layer carries the branch’s final agent-GMV share into its starting delegated-demand state.16%near-term agent GMV 16% → 16%

seller-agent footholdA disclosed 12% handoff factor converts rail-capable sellers into the initial seller-agent foothold.8%sellers answering a rail 65% → 8%

governance capacityPortable authority, liability clarity and branch coordination are averaged into the initial governance capacity.37%structural priors

physical execution footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds the small share of agent demand that can already cause and verify physical execution.0%near-term agent GMV + structural prior 16% → 0%

pooled demand footholdDelegated demand and the pooled-mandate prior seed the initial ability to bargain across more than one buyer.0%agent GMV + pooled-mandate prior 16% → 0%

adaptive supply footholdA disclosed handoff factor seeds supply that can be configured from machine-readable demand rather than selected from a fixed catalog.0%seller-agent foothold

adversarial lossThe failed-attempt share and adversarial-pressure prior seed loss pressure; this is a structural mapping, not observed loss.9%failed attempts + pressure prior 83% → 9%

share of demand delegated starts at 15.5%; seller-agent adoption starts at 7.7%; share with machine counterparties starts at 1.2%; share negotiated starts at 1.2%; share run continuously starts at 1.6%.

No new actor class enters yet; adoption and institutional state drive this transition.

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2032

assisted commerce · model-triggered authored event

Authority remains attached to the runtime account.

Runtime accounts become the default container for spending authority, commercial history and the platform guarantee.

2032

Interface evolution · live seller-presence market · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Walled gardens

One intent, one approval

State the goal, inspect the evidence and approve this purchase.

live seller-presence market · approval bundle · engine selected

Agent influenced$408B–$666B

Agent executed$148B–$308B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$124B–$259B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Walled gardens · 2032

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Replace the weekly essentials order before Friday. Negotiate substitutions, delivery and the $190 ceiling.

I’ll act inside your single-use mandate, preserve The person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The market forms

Seller difference arrives inside the agent.

HRAgent-assembled storeHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfaceready for approvalWalled gardens2032

IntentReplace the weekly essentials order before Friday. Negotiate substitutions, delivery and the $190 ceiling.

within mandate

+$12

One signed commitment · one-shot settlementEnter seller presence

terms verifiedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2032-04proof attached

Seller authoredoffer, imagery and fulfillment promiseYour agent shapedranking, comparison and mandate fitAssurance checkedplatform guarantee

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2032

The person approves one bounded commitment and receives a receipt plus execution watch.

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

Your agent handledBuyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authoritysingle-use mandate

Market topologymanaged marketplace

Identityruntime-bound account

Price formationposted bundle

Settlementone-shot settlement

Human attentionapprove this purchase

Trust surfaceruntime-bound account, platform guarantee, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsAssembles a ranked offer, counterparty, settlement and assurance bundle, then waits for one explicit authorization. Sourcing uses ranked shortlist from a managed marketplace; posted bundles set the price before one-shot settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksinvoke the platform guarantee or appeal inside the runtime, with no portable fallback if the account is suspended; the person’s attention mode is “approve this purchase.”

autonomy10%

delegation fit66%

market reach46%

exception risk26%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 33%negotiate 55%policy 12%ambient 0%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 33% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

2032 · Walled gardens
managed marketplace
Site referral 72%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A staple is unavailable. The person sees the one tradeoff that matters: twelve dollars more for same-day local stock or a two-day delay.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

Buyer and supplier agents negotiate packaging, delivery and brand flexibility while the allergen and budget constraints remain locked.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Inventory is reserved, the delivery route is recomputed and the rejected substitute never enters the fulfillment queue.

Control returns hereThe person sees only a boundary-crossing counteroffer; routine line-item bargaining stays off-screen.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The visible change is compression: product search, seller choice, service, payment and delivery arrive as one proposal. Human attention concentrates at the moment of authorization. Since 2029, machine-counterparty share rises by 3.3 percentage points and continuous commerce falls by 0.3 percentage points. The experience remains an approval bundle, but its mandate and market scope deepen.

What remains contested: The managed marketplace makes routine execution coherent, but a runtime-bound account concentrates ranking, appeal and exit inside the runtime.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent

Coordination burden4%range 2%–4%

Human roleoperatorowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

approval bundle remains visible while its mandate deepens.

2029 → 2032

Interfaceapproval bundleunchanged from approval bundle

Human attentionapprove this purchaseunchanged from approve this purchase

Agent mandatesingle-use mandateautonomy +4.1 pp to 10%

Market boundary46% reachablereach -0.0 pp to 46% · exception risk -0.0 pp to 26%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · identity portability < 35.0%Identity portability is 18.0% and machine counterparties reach 4.5%.Authored consequence: The guarantee reduces transaction friction while making suspension, appeal and exit economically consequential.

Event sensitivity · selected 31% · leading alternate 38%

Authority remains attached to the runtime account.31%

Platforms license selective credential bridges.38%

Regulation forces portable mandates out of the garden.31%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Authority remains attached to the runtime account. 31% · Platforms license selective credential bridges. 38% · Regulation forces portable mandates out of the garden. 31%

Model competence50%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability32%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity15%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand24%

machine on both sides4%

continuous commerce1%

physical execution5%

pooled demand1%

adaptive supply3%

governance capacity37%

adversarial loss9%

2029 → 2032model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+8.9 pp2029 16% → now 24%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+25.5 pp2029 8% → now 33%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+3.3 pp2029 1% → now 4%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.−0.3 pp2029 2% → now 1%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+5.2 pp2029 0% → now 5%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+1.0 pp2029 0% → now 1%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+2.8 pp2029 0% → now 3%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.−0.0 pp2029 9% → now 9%

share of demand delegated rises to 24.4% (+8.9%); seller-agent adoption rises to 33.3% (+25.5%); share with machine counterparties rises to 4.5% (+3.3%); share negotiated rises to 2.1% (+0.8%); share run continuously falls to 1.2% (-0.3%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2036

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Platform guarantees keep approval in the loop.

Buyer and seller agents negotiate inside platform-run markets whose operator controls access, ranking and acceptable terms.

2036

Interface evolution · policy + exception surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Walled gardens

The purchase becomes a policy

Define the policy, review exceptions and a periodic digest, and adjust constraints.

policy + exception surface · policy console · engine selected

Agent influenced$650B–$1.3T

Agent executed$259B–$647B

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$212B–$564B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Walled gardens · 2036

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Keep household essentials in stock below $480 a month; substitute only inside the allergy and waste policy.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold essentials policyHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacemonitoringWalled gardens2036

Outcomethree-week reserve

Ceiling$480 / month

Attention1 exception

Maintain staple reserve above 14 dayson track

Prefer refill before replacementmonitoring

Substitution would cross allergy boundaryreview

Decision requested · platform guaranteeApprove an allergy-safe local substitute while the supply agent reroutes the remaining basket?standing search across a managed marketplace · invoke the platform guarantee or appeal inside the runtime, with no portable fallback if the account is suspended

policy active · exception isolatedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2036-04proof attached

Seller authoredservice capability when an exception changes providersYour agent shapedcontinuous policy, memory and exception routingAssurance checkedplatform guarantee

Scene 3 of 4 · Agents carry the commitment

The commercial machinery moves behind the surface.

YYour policyreview exceptions and digest

✦Buyer agentrolling category policy

Mmanaged marketplacenegotiated bundle

SSeller presencestanding search across a managed marketplace

WPhysical worldauthenticated outcome

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Recourseplatform guarantee

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2036

A sequence of reversible commitments replaces isolated search, cart and checkout sessions.

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

Your agent handledThe agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authorityrolling category policy

Market topologymanaged marketplace

Identityruntime-bound account

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Human attentionreview exceptions and digest

Trust surfaceruntime-bound account, platform guarantee, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

How the market respondsMonitors the selected outcome, opens and closes commitments, and routes genuine exceptions to the person. Sourcing uses standing search across a managed marketplace; buyer and seller agents negotiate the bundle before conditional atomic settlement executes the commitment.

When it breaksinvoke the platform guarantee or appeal inside the runtime, with no portable fallback if the account is suspended; the person’s attention mode is “review exceptions and digest.”

autonomy16%

delegation fit66%

market reach46%

exception risk27%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 2%negotiate 32%policy 61%ambient 5%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 61% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

2036 · Walled gardens
managed marketplace
Site referral 59%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

The household sees a three-week reserve, expected waste and one exception instead of assembling the same order again.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent monitors an opted-in inventory record, opens reversible supply commitments and shifts spend toward refill capacity before stock runs low.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

Local refill, delivery and pickup operators receive just-in-time commitments; packaging and unused inventory are collected on the return leg.

Control returns hereThe person reviews the allergy exception and a periodic digest, and can disable any inventory signal or seller class.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The unit of commerce changes from an item to an outcome. Purchases become reversible commitments managed against a standing policy, with the person returning for exceptions and review. Since 2032, machine-counterparty share rises by 6.3 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 0.8 percentage points. That state transition moves the purchasing interface from approval bundle to policy console.

What remains contested: The managed marketplace makes routine execution coherent, but a runtime-bound account concentrates ranking, appeal and exit inside the runtime.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Physical operator · Routing agent · Market operator · Supply agent

Coordination burden6%range 3%–8%

Human roleapprover and recourse ownerowns multi-agent drift

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

The interface moves from approval bundle to policy console.

2032 → 2036

Interfacepolicy consolefrom approval bundle

Human attentionreview exceptions and digestfrom approve this purchase

Agent mandaterolling category policyautonomy +5.5 pp to 16%

Market boundary46% reachablereach -0.1 pp to 46% · exception risk +0.9 pp to 27%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · negotiated transactions < 6.0%4.7% of transactions are negotiated and seller-agent adoption reaches 52.7%.Authored consequence: Negotiation becomes efficient inside the garden, but the operator can observe and shape both sides of price formation.

Event sensitivity · selected 80% · leading alternate 20%

Platform guarantees keep approval in the loop.80%

Runtime agents bargain inside captive markets.20%

Platform auctions internalize machine negotiation.0%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Platform guarantees keep approval in the loop. 80% · Runtime agents bargain inside captive markets. 20% · Platform auctions internalize machine negotiation. 0%

Model competence74%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability47%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity24%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand33%

machine on both sides11%

continuous commerce2%

physical execution15%

pooled demand2%

adaptive supply9%

governance capacity37%

adversarial loss10%

2032 → 2036model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+8.9 pp2032 24% → now 33%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+19.4 pp2032 33% → now 53%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+6.3 pp2032 4% → now 11%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+0.8 pp2032 1% → now 2%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+9.7 pp2032 5% → now 15%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+0.9 pp2032 1% → now 2%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+5.8 pp2032 3% → now 9%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+0.9 pp2032 9% → now 10%

share of demand delegated rises to 33.4% (+8.9%); seller-agent adoption rises to 52.7% (+19.4%); share with machine counterparties rises to 10.8% (+6.3%); share negotiated rises to 4.7% (+2.6%); share run continuously rises to 2.0% (+0.8%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

2040

delegated commerce · model-triggered authored event

Persistent agents remain bounded by platform guarantees.

Persistent runtime agents manage recurring needs through captive accounts, guarantees and preferred seller capacity.

2040

Interface evolution · ambient agent surface · illustrative Household replenishment purchase · Walled gardens

The purchase becomes a policy

Define the policy, review exceptions and a periodic digest, and adjust constraints.

ambient agent surface · policy console · engine selected

Agent influenced$909B–$2.0T

Agent executed$396B–$1.1T

Merchant-routed after tolls + loss$316B–$932B

✦Your commerce agentHousehold replenishment · Walled gardens · 2040

illustrative experience

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

Maintain a three-week household reserve across staples, cleaning and personal care while minimizing waste and rush delivery.

I’ll act inside your rolling category policy, preserve No approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate. and bring back only a meaningful decision.

Scene 2 of 4 · The policy responds

The interface appears only when the policy needs you.

HRHousehold essentials policyHousehold replenishment · personal agent surfacemonitoringWalled gardens2040

Outcomethree-week reserve

Ceiling$480 / month

Attention1 exception

Maintain staple reserve above 14 dayson track

Prefer refill before replacementmonitoring

Substitution would cross allergy boundaryreview

policy active · exception isolatedmandate · REPLENISHMENT-2040-04proof attached

Seller authoredservice capability when an exception changes providersYour agent shapedcontinuous policy, memory and exception routingAssurance checkedplatform guarantee

Scene 3 of 4 · Agents carry the commitment

The commercial machinery moves behind the surface.

YYour policyreview exceptions and digest

✦Buyer agentrolling category policy

Mmanaged marketplacenegotiated bundle

SSeller presencestanding search across a managed marketplace

WPhysical worldauthenticated outcome

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Recourseplatform guarantee

Scene 4 of 4 · The relationship continues

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

Illustrative physical outcome · 2040

A sequence of reversible commitments replaces isolated search, cart and checkout sessions.

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

Your agent handledThe agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

The seller remains visible throughauthenticated capability, fulfillment state and service responsibility

You return whenNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

Scene 1 of 4 · Intent wakes the agent

Open the model beneath this experienceeconomics · trust · failure · physical handoff

Authorityrolling category policy

Market topologymanaged marketplace

Identityruntime-bound account

Price formationnegotiated bundle

Settlementconditional atomic settlement

Human attentionreview exceptions and digest

Trust surfaceruntime-bound account, platform guarantee, provenance and a receipt that records the mandate and result.

autonomy21%

delegation fit66%

market reach45%

exception risk28%

Range-covering interface spread

approval 0%negotiate 9%policy 59%ambient 32%

512 structural draws · sensitivity coverage, not probability

Surface sensitivityThe engine-selected surface appears in 59% of the range-covering draws above. The remaining share shows which alternate purchasing interfaces the same model selects as structural assumptions move.

Evidence labelIndicators combine structural state with disclosed, unanchored arena priors. Dialogue and interface remain illustrative, not forecast outputs.

In the physical world · illustrative physical-world experience

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

2040 · Walled gardens
managed marketplace
Site referral 50%

What the person experiencesThe visible moment

A short alert explains that one supplier lot was recalled, which reserve was isolated and what verified local replacement is already held.

What software does off-screenThe delegated work

The agent unwinds the affected commitment, reallocates the protected reserve and negotiates replacement capacity across independent suppliers.

What changes in the worldThe physical handoff

The recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

Control returns hereNo approval is needed inside the standing safety policy; the person can pause the response, inspect evidence or revoke the mandate.

What happens next · model-derived interpretation

The unit of commerce changes from an item to an outcome. Purchases become reversible commitments managed against a standing policy, with the person returning for exceptions and review. Since 2036, machine-counterparty share rises by 5.6 percentage points and continuous commerce rises by 1.6 percentage points. The experience remains a policy console, but its mandate and market scope deepen.

What remains contested: The managed marketplace makes routine execution coherent, but a runtime-bound account concentrates ranking, appeal and exit inside the runtime.

Active machine cast · model-derivedSeller agent · Buyer agent · Mandate agent · Settlement agent · Physical operator · Routing agent · Market operator · Supply agent · Assurance agent

Coordination burden9%range 5%–10%

Human roleapprover and recourse ownerowns coordination capture

Between purchasing chapters · model-derived experience transition

policy console remains visible while its mandate deepens.

2036 → 2040

Interfacepolicy consoleunchanged from policy console

Human attentionreview exceptions and digestunchanged from review exceptions and digest

Agent mandaterolling category policyautonomy +4.7 pp to 21%

Market boundary45% reachablereach -0.1 pp to 45% · exception risk +1.2 pp to 28%

Model trace · why this chapter changes

Model trigger · continuous commerce < 12.0%3.6% of commerce runs continuously while market concentration is 78.8%.Authored consequence: Execution feels continuous to the buyer while switching costs accumulate in identity, history, reserves and redress.

Event sensitivity · selected 98% · leading alternate 2%

Persistent agents remain bounded by platform guarantees.98%

Runtime subscriptions absorb the checkout session.2%

Platform reserves become private outcome markets.0%

512 range-covering structural draws · authored event selection coverage, not probability. Persistent agents remain bounded by platform guarantees. 98% · Runtime subscriptions absorb the checkout session. 2% · Platform reserves become private outcome markets. 0%

Model competence86%Can the agent reason through the commercial task?

Harness reliability58%Can tools, retries and checks finish the task safely?

Memory continuity30%Can preferences and outcomes persist with user control?

delegated demand40%

machine on both sides16%

continuous commerce4%

physical execution23%

pooled demand3%

adaptive supply14%

governance capacity37%

adversarial loss11%

2036 → 2040model-derived transition · equations, not observed attribution

delegated demandCommercial capability closes part of the gap toward the governance- and loss-constrained trust ceiling.+6.4 pp2036 33% → now 40%

seller-agent adoptionSeller-side diffusion follows the demand agents can address and the selected annual diffusion prior.+7.9 pp2036 53% → now 61%

machine counterpartiesBuyer and seller delegation meet at a rate shaped by persistent-agent cost and branch coordination.+5.6 pp2036 11% → now 16%

continuous commerceDelegated demand, machine counterparties and governance turn isolated transactions into standing policies.+1.6 pp2036 2% → now 4%

physical executionAgent-addressable operators diffuse toward a ceiling set by seller agents, machine counterparties and governance capacity.+7.6 pp2036 15% → now 23%

pooled demandPortable pooled mandates, branch coordination and market concentration determine how much delegated demand can bargain collectively.+0.7 pp2036 2% → now 3%

adaptive supplySeller agents, negotiated transactions and physical execution let supply respond to intent before a finished item exists.+5.2 pp2036 9% → now 14%

adversarial lossFraud and manipulation pressure compete with governance capacity as machine counterparties expand.+1.2 pp2036 10% → now 11%

share of demand delegated rises to 39.7% (+6.4%); seller-agent adoption rises to 60.7% (+7.9%); share with machine counterparties rises to 16.3% (+5.6%); share negotiated rises to 7.9% (+3.1%); share run continuously rises to 3.6% (+1.6%).

modeled from unanchored structural inputs · 17 published research hooks · ensemble ranges are modeled sensitivity, not measured probability

Expand the forces behind this futureeconomic envelope · six protocol paths · full agent ecology

Economic envelope · annual U.S. retail e-commerce flows

A dollar can be influenced, executed, retained—or captured as infrastructure.

512 paired range-covering draws
one observed 2026 anchor
not a valuation or probability

agent influencedagent executedmerchant-routed after channel value + loss

2029$1.6T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $235B–$270Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $76.7B–$119Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $63.0B–$98.5Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $4.4B–$11.1Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $4.8B–$13.2Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $137M–$496Mnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2032$1.9T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $408B–$666Bdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $148B–$308Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $124B–$259Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $9.4B–$27.2Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $8.4B–$31.2Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $306M–$1.3Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2036$2.4T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $650B–$1.3Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $259B–$647Bauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $212B–$564Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $17.0B–$55.6Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $12.6B–$71.2Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $674M–$3.5Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

2040$3.1T
addressable baseline

Agent influenced GMV: $909B–$2.0Tdiscovery or decision shaped
Agent executed GMV: $396B–$1.1Tauthority reaches commitment
Merchant-routed value: $316B–$932Bafter modeled channel tolls + loss; not profit
Agent-channel value: $25.5B–$92.2Baccess, orchestration + distribution pool
Risk leakage: $20.1B–$130Bfraud, dispute, failure + exception loss
Machine-service revenue: $1.2B–$7.0Bnew metered work; may overlap other flows

Agentic commerce paths · 2029 → 2040

Six futures can grow from the same need.

four stages per path
activation signals can coexist
experiences = illustrative

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Stores ship their first bounded agents

A merchant-native shopper agent joins search, product reasoning, cart and care in one context while typed tools keep price, availability and policy grounded in store systems.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person asks the store for an outcome, sees a progressively rendered comparison and cart, then applies the prepared checkout from inside the conversation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$2.5B$767M–$5.9B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 2.5% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextThe harness grounds every claim, renders only server-issued records and keeps payment behind a real approval surface.

How this path can stallThe agent becomes a polished chat layer over missing inventory, weak policy data or manipulative ranking.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity24% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmerchant-owned agent harness

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Every store becomes an agent

YouReturn to the relationshipDescribe the household replenishment result; inspect which preferences the store remembered and correct any stale ones.

AIPlan with one contextUse search, research, planning, cart and care skills without handing the conversation across lossy domain agents.

BizRender authoritative UITyped tools return server-validated product, comparison, cart, order and policy components.

YouApply the staged purchaseThe agent may propose and prepare; a person or explicit policy applies the consequential commitment.

BizOperate and careThe merchant agent watches inventory and service, stages operational changes and keeps the seller accountable.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Businesses run persistent shopper and merchant agents over typed commerce tools, so the store can research, render, transact and care for the relationship without collapsing into a generic assistant.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

Commerce-agent harnessUCPMCP / backend tools

Activation signal51%

2040 direct value pool$16.0B

Dominant in range draws72%

Human surfacea persistent seller conversation with typed product, cart, order and approval surfaces

Control remains hereApprove the order, inspect or delete remembered preferences and require a person or standing policy before the merchant agent can apply consequential store changes.

What could break it: The seller can turn memory and conversational UI into a captive persuasion surface, while unsafe tool results or weak approval gates can move money or change the business.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws72% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

One-use authority becomes legible

Agent payments, identity assertions and receipts begin recording why a purchase was allowed, not only that a payment succeeded.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a tightly scoped purchase token and receives a receipt that links intent, seller, amount and result.

Conditional direct annual value pool$703M$153M–$2.1B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 0.7% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextWallets and merchants can represent purpose, scope, expiry and revocation consistently.

How this path can stallMandates remain unreadable legal objects or are reduced to reusable payment credentials.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity76% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentcredentialed agent-to-merchant request

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Permission replaces checkout

YouGrant a scoped mandateAuthorize this class of household replenishment outcome with explicit limits and expiry.

AIPresent minimum credentialsProve identity, eligibility and authority without disclosing the complete personal profile.

BizVerify before reservingValidate the signed intent and bind the proposed order to that authority.

NetSettle with evidencePayment and checkout receipts preserve what was authorized and what executed.

YouReview exceptions onlyRoutine compliant uses stay quiet; boundary crossings return with an explanation.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:A signed chain links the person’s authority to the exact commitment, payment and receipt.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Signed, scoped authority travels farther than any single agent, so commerce begins with a mandate and ends with auditable evidence.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

AP2Trusted AgentVerifiable Credentials

Activation signal42%

2040 direct value pool$4.5B

Dominant in range draws28%

Human surfaceauthority wallet, exceptions and receipts

Control remains hereEdit or revoke the mandate; approve only uses that cross its amount, identity, timing or consequence boundary.

What could break it: A technically valid mandate can still encode a misunderstood preference or grant more downstream delegation than intended.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws28% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2032
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Adapters translate fragmented commerce

Buyer agents normalize merchant pages and APIs into partial offer schemas, but discovery, logistics and recourse still break at network boundaries.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person receives a cross-site shortlist, then approves a bundle assembled through several visible handoffs.

Conditional direct annual value pool$1.5B$353M–$4.0B sensitivity · based on agent-influenced GMV at a 0.6% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextBasic offer, fulfillment and receipt semantics converge enough to translate.

How this path can stallEvery large participant extends the schema differently and adapters become permanent tollbooths.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentfederated demand-and-supply network

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Commerce becomes a routing network

YouPublish bounded intentSend a time-limited household replenishment request without selecting a marketplace first.

NetRoute across networksGateways find compatible seller, logistics, financing and assurance participants.

BizReturn interoperable offersParticipants answer the same schema with inventory, terms, evidence and service capacity.

AICompose the outcomeRank whole outcomes rather than isolated products and preserve independent alternatives.

NetCoordinate fulfillmentCommitments and status updates travel across the selected participant graph.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The selected bundle can combine inventory, service and physical execution from participants that never shared one marketplace owner.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Demand is broadcast into interoperable buyer, seller, logistics and assurance networks instead of sent to one seller agent.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

BecknONDCUCP discovery

Activation signal19%

2040 direct value pool$7.3B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea composed outcome from many network participants

Control remains hereChoose the routing and ranking policy, inspect participant provenance and exclude any network or seller class.

What could break it: Fragmented governance can make responsibility ambiguous when several participants jointly create a failed outcome.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents buy small pieces of digital work

Machine payments make data, search, verification and generation callable without a subscription or procurement cycle.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person approves a capped task; the assistant buys a few services and shows cost beside the resulting recommendation.

Conditional direct annual value pool$272M$137M–$496M sensitivity · based on metered machine services. Non-additive.

What must become true nextCapabilities can quote, authenticate, settle and return useful evidence cheaply.

How this path can stallMicro-payments add friction without proving that the work improved the outcome.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentmachine-payable service graph

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Everything becomes a paid capability

YouFund an outcome reservePlace a capped reserve behind the household replenishment policy rather than prepaying one bundle.

AIDiscover paid capabilitiesFind machine-readable services for evidence, planning, capacity and execution.

NetOpen metered sessionsAuthorize capped sessions and stream settlement as useful work is verified.

AIRecompose continuouslyReplace underperforming services without discarding the completed work or policy.

YouAudit spend and resultSee cost by capability, final evidence and every automatically stopped session.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The reserve is charged as verified work arrives, allowing the service graph to change without rebuilding a cart.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

The commercial unit becomes a session, result or stream of work rather than a cart containing a finished product.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

MPPx402MCP

Activation signal20%

2040 direct value pool$3.1B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea reserve, live spend stream and result ledger

Control remains hereSet the reserve, per-service ceilings and stop conditions; review the live spend stream or terminate every session.

What could break it: Many individually cheap calls can create runaway spend, dependency chains or incentives to prolong the task.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Agents inherit platform reputation

Assistants can use marketplace ratings and escrow, but identity, ranking and dispute history remain trapped inside each platform.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person sees which platform guarantee backs the recommendation and must enter that platform to resolve failure.

Conditional direct annual value pool$1.2B$230M–$3.6B sensitivity · based on agent-executed GMV at a 1.2% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextAgent actions can be attributed to verified accounts and bounded payment instruments.

How this path can stallSynthetic reviews and account farming make inherited reputation less useful to machines.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentregistry-and-escrow work market

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Trust becomes the marketplace

AIPost a verifiable jobPublish the household replenishment result, acceptance tests, deadline and escrow terms.

NetFilter identity and reputationResolve registered providers, attestations, prior outcomes and required bonds.

BizBid with evidenceProviders commit price, method, service terms and a bond against non-performance.

NetEvaluate the outcomeIndependent evaluators check delivery evidence and open a dispute window.

YouAccept or appealEscrow releases automatically inside policy; contested judgments return with the full record.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:Unknown providers can compete without requiring one platform to own identity, ranking, payment and dispute resolution.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Identity, reputation, escrow and independent evaluation let unknown agents form temporary markets around a job.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

ERC-8004ERC-8183A2A

Activation signal20%

2040 direct value pool$7.7B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfaceproof thresholds, bonds, evaluators and recourse

Control remains hereChoose reputation sources, minimum bonds, evaluators and appeal rules before the job is posted.

What could break it: Reputation can be gamed, evaluators can collude and on-chain evidence can preserve a wrong judgment permanently.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From the 2029 handoff to 2040

How this future becomes possible.

Follow the mechanism through bridge, formation, scale and infrastructure. Activation is model-derived support; milestones and purchasing moments are conditional narration.

largest modeled acceleration · 2036
conditional protocol-future path, not a forecast

bridge · 2029 · conditional path

Products expose a persistent identity

Digital links and event histories let a person or assistant retrieve authoritative product, ownership and service information after purchase.

What purchasing feels like hereThe person scans or asks the assistant about the asset; service history and compatible options replace a fresh web search.

Conditional direct annual value pool$113M$28.2M–$283M sensitivity · based on physically orchestrated GMV at a 3.0% scenario take. Non-additive.

What must become true nextProduct identifiers resolve to portable, owner-accessible lifecycle data.

How this path can stallManufacturers control the history, withhold repair data or abandon the resolver.

walled institutionThis path scales fastest inside integrated platforms; the experience is coherent, but identity, evidence and exit remain captive to the runtime.

Range sensitivity0% of 512 draws select this as the strongest mechanism at 2029; not a probability.

2040 destination · complete illustrative transaction

2040 · Household replenishmentasset-to-service coordination loop

A different purchasing world · illustrative protocol-enabled purchasing experience

Physical objects become the buyers

ObjDetect a state changeThe asset records the household replenishment condition with time, location, provenance and sensor evidence.

ObjCheck its service policyDetermine whether to observe, reserve capacity, request approval or stop operation.

NetFind compatible physical serviceQuery parts, technicians, facilities and logistics against the asset identity and history.

AIAuthorize the responseApply the owner’s mandate, preserve alternatives and bind the selected physical plan.

ObjVerify the new stateRecord completion evidence, update the twin and release payment only for the verified result.

Physical resultThe recalled goods are collected, replacement stock arrives with provenance and the household reserve returns to its policy band.

What the person gets:The asset’s condition, service history and verified result form one continuing commercial record instead of separate shopping and maintenance journeys.

Mechanism dossier · conditional scenario

Assets publish their own condition and service history, allowing a vehicle, appliance, building or inventory item to initiate commerce.

These named protocols are architectural inspirations, not modeled winners or adoption forecasts.

GS1 Digital LinkEPCISdigital twins

Activation signal37%

2040 direct value pool$21.0B

Dominant in range draws0%

Human surfacea living asset timeline with revocable operating policy

Control remains hereControl which sensors and service classes may initiate action, require approval for irreversible work and revoke the asset mandate.

What could break it: Bad sensor data, compromised twins or manufacturer-controlled histories can trigger unnecessary work or lock owners into captive service.

All six mechanisms across 512 draws0% selectedSelection share is sensitivity coverage from unanchored ranges, not a probability that this protocol future occurs.

From one assistant to an agent ecology

Eight forms can coexist—and diverge.

strongest form outlined
physical implications authored

interaction form2029203220362040

Site referralPhysical fulfillment remains downstream of a conventional order.

83%

72%

59%

50%

Delegated checkoutThe seller fulfills an agent-authored order rather than a person-built cart.

13%

20%

25%

28%

Bilateral agent tradeInventory, service capacity and delivery can be reserved machine-to-machine.

13%

Terms marketThe physical plan changes before checkout because timing and capacity are part of the bargain.

Standing outcome policySupply, repair, transport or care coordination continue without a new shopping session.

Collective procurementNeighborhoods, fleets or firms reshape routes, inventory and capacity through coordinated demand.

Commissioned supplyProduction schedules, components and facilities respond to intent rather than forecasted shelf demand.

14%

Embodied orchestrationThe purchasing interface becomes a live map of actions, safety boundaries and revocable authority.

15%

23%

Delegation frontier · published path

Where autonomy stops depends on the need.

engine-selected interface + full range coverage · unanchored priors · illustrative UI

commerce arena2029203220362040

Ski gogglesexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval88% selectednegotiate61% selectednegotiate59% selected

Household replenishmentselected lensapproval100% selectedapproval33% selectedpolicy61% selectedpolicy59% selected

Everyday mobilityexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval88% selectednegotiate61% selectednegotiate59% selected

Complex travelexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval100% selectedapproval95% selectedapproval68% selected

Care coordinationexplore this needapproval100% selectedapproval100% selectedapproval95% selectedapproval68% selected

approvalnegotiatepolicyambient

Change the assumptions behind this story

Server simulationEvery submitted counterfactual is recomputed by the deterministic horizon engine; the URL preserves the complete run state.

Long-horizon counterfactual · structural assumptions

Change what becomes possible.

These inputs rerun the selected path from its 2029 scenario state. They do not alter the near-term engine or any dated observation.

published preset

Commerce arena

Frequent, familiar and usually reversible purchases with stable constraints. The arena changes interface thresholds and human attention, not the aggregate market path.

repeatability95%reversibility85%consequence20%preference load20%

unanchored scenario prior · modeled category lens

commercial capability learning / year17%8% → 24% · unanchored research range

persistent-agent cost decline / year26%15% → 45% · unanchored research range

seller-agent diffusion / year11%6% → 24% · unanchored research range

portable authority and receipts80%10% → 90% · unanchored research range

liability clarity82%10% → 90% · unanchored research range

fraud and manipulation pressure / year13%8% → 35% · unanchored research range

physical execution diffusion / year9%2% → 18% · unanchored research range

portable pooled mandates28%5% → 75% · unanchored research range

adaptive supply diffusion / year5%2% → 18% · unanchored research range

Only the selected structural path is replaced; the comparison lines remain the published presets.

Benchmark the result

Three regimes become reference points, not destiny.

The reader-built path can combine mechanisms that the old labels kept apart. Coordinated-open, fragmented-open and walled presets remain below as transparent comparison anchors for concentration and interoperability.

Coordinated open rails

agent markets

56% of commerce has a machine on both sides; 25% runs continuously against a policy. Conditional 2040 p10–p90: 18%–50% machine counterparties.

Fragmented open web

delegated commerce

23% of commerce has a machine on both sides; 7% runs continuously against a policy. Conditional 2040 p10–p90: 12%–35% machine counterparties.

Walled gardens

delegated commerce

16% of commerce has a machine on both sides; 4% runs continuously against a policy. Conditional 2040 p10–p90: 8%–25% machine counterparties.

Machine counterparties · published presets with p10–p90 structural sensitivity

CoordinatedFragmentedWalled

Structural sensitivity ribbons. Each p10–p90 band covers 512 paired, seeded combinations of the nine disclosed unanchored structural ranges, conditioned on that branch’s published 2029 handoff. The line is the published preset; the ribbon is not a confidence interval or probability. A preset can sit outside its ribbon because the coverage design spans every range stratum rather than centering on that preset.19

Beyond the site. Embodied agents, autonomous mandates, agent trust registries and transaction-lifecycle protocols demonstrate partial building blocks—not adoption rates or a complete physical economy. Pooled demand, commissioned supply and embodied orchestration remain disclosed structural possibilities with unanchored priors.20 21 22 23

New merchant-agent evidence. Anthropic's 2026 Commerce Agents blueprint makes a governed shopper-agent plus merchant-agent stack implementable today. The model uses that architecture to sharpen one structural mechanism, but does not treat the launch or its vendor-reported business outcomes as an adoption prior.31

Research appendix: new actors and assumptions

Actors the 2029 model does not contain

The cast changes with the market.

These actors enter only when the structural layer reaches the relevant epoch.

Merchant capabilityenters 2032exposes discovery, checkout, fulfillment and support as callable operations without needing a human-facing storefrontnew actor

Seller agententers 2032sets price, inventory exposure, service terms and which buyers to trustnew actor

Authority networkenters 2032proves what an agent may spend, disclose, sign and delegate onwardnew actor

Open commerce routerenters 2032routes portable intent across catalogs, logistics and payment providers without owning the buyer relationshipnew actor

Agent market operatorenters 2036matches machine demand and supply while setting access and ranking rulesnew actor

Assurance networkenters 2036underwrites disputes, provenance, delivery and adversarial behaviornew actor

Physical operator agententers 2036commits robots, vehicles, workers and facilities to machine-negotiated physical outcomesnew actor

Metered capabilityenters 2036quotes and settles small units of digital or physical work as they are consumednew actor

Trust and escrow registryenters 2036makes identity, reputation, job state and conditional release portable between unfamiliar counterpartiesnew actor

Demand coalitionenters 2036pools bounded mandates so households or organizations bargain without surrendering individual constraintsnew actor

Resource agententers 2040continuously allocates money, energy, compute, inventory or capacity against a policynew actor

Asset twinenters 2040turns a machine, package, building or product lifecycle into an authenticated source of commercial intentnew actor

Production agententers 2040configures or commissions supply after machine demand forms, before a finished product necessarily existsnew actor

Research hooks

What the next evidence pass must update.

capabilityLearningannual improvement in agents completing multi-step commercial workprior range 0.08–0.24unanchored

inferenceCostDeflationannual decline in the cost of persistent commercial agencyprior range 0.15–0.45unanchored

sellerAgentDiffusionannual diffusion of seller-side pricing, inventory and negotiation agentsprior range 0.06–0.24unanchored

identityPortabilityhow portable identity, authority, reputation and receipts become across runtimesprior range 0.1–0.9unanchored

liabilityClarityclarity about who bears loss when an autonomous transaction goes wrongprior range 0.1–0.9unanchored

adversarialPressureannual pressure from fraud, collusion, manipulation and synthetic supplyprior range 0.08–0.35unanchored

physicalExecutionDiffusionannual diffusion of agent-addressable robots, vehicles, workers and facilitiesprior range 0.02–0.18unanchored

collectiveMandatePortabilityability to pool bounded purchasing mandates across people or organizationsprior range 0.05–0.75unanchored

adaptiveSupplyDiffusionannual diffusion of supply agents that can configure or commission capacity from demandprior range 0.02–0.18unanchored

Enter one illustrative agent-to-agent transaction →

Commerce becomes an operating layer.

Buying stops being one kind of event.

Choose what becomes true—then live through the result.

The future is a recipe, not a regime.

The mandate utility network

Coordinated open rails

One need moves from request to operating policy.

Checkout compatibility exposes the seller gap.

One intent, one approval

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

The structural handoff begins as an approval bundle.

Mandates become portable credentials.

The purchase becomes a policy

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

The interface moves from approval bundle to policy console.

Agent auctions begin clearing commercial terms.

Commerce becomes continuous

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

The cupboard becomes an outcome, not a recurring cart.

The interface moves from policy console to ambient market.

Standing policies replace more checkout sessions.

Commerce becomes continuous

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

A recall changes the physical plan before the shelf is empty.

ambient market remains visible while its mandate deepens.

A dollar can be influenced, executed, retained—or captured as infrastructure.

Six futures can grow from the same need.

How this future becomes possible.

Stores ship their first bounded agents

Conversation becomes the merchant’s operating surface

Buyer agents meet merchant agents without losing authorship

Every business can become a persistent commercial counterpart

Every store becomes an agent

How this future becomes possible.

One-use authority becomes legible

Authority travels across agents and merchants

Standing mandates replace repeated approval

Permission becomes the commercial primitive

Permission replaces checkout

How this future becomes possible.

Adapters translate fragmented commerce

Portable intent reaches federated discovery

Networks compose supply, logistics and assurance

Commerce behaves like a routing network

Commerce becomes a routing network

How this future becomes possible.

Agents buy small pieces of digital work

Capped sessions replace API subscriptions

Service graphs recompose while the outcome runs

The economy exposes paid capabilities, not finished carts

Everything becomes a paid capability

How this future becomes possible.

Agents inherit platform reputation

Identity and outcome history become portable

Temporary markets form around verifiable jobs

Trust infrastructure becomes the marketplace

Trust becomes the marketplace

How this future becomes possible.

Products expose a persistent identity

Assets diagnose and prepare a response

Assets reserve physical capacity inside policy

Physical objects initiate and verify commerce

Physical objects become the buyers

More agents create a new coordination problem.

Eight forms can coexist—and diverge.

Where autonomy stops depends on the need.

Fragmented open web

One need moves from request to operating policy.

Open protocols produce an adapter economy.

One intent, one approval

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

The basket arrives as one inspectable commitment.

The structural handoff begins as an approval bundle.

Credential translation becomes its own market.

Terms become negotiable

The purchase begins before a storefront appears.

The substitution is settled before the van is routed.

The interface moves from approval bundle to negotiation room.